Charlton vs 10.10.26 11:301 – 1Full Time
Bristol City — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsBristol CityYouTubeMatch Events
- 8′Charlton, goal:1–0assist
- 27′Bristol City, penalty goal:1–1Penalty
- Half-time1 – 1
- 53′Charlton, substitution:off
- 53′Charlton, substitution:off
- 65′Bristol City, substitution:off
- 65′Bristol City, substitution:off
- 69′Charlton, yellow card:Foul
- 77′Charlton, substitution:off
- 77′Charlton, substitution:off
- 78′Bristol City, substitution:off
- 78′Bristol City, substitution:off
- 89′Charlton, substitution:off
- 90+2′Bristol City, yellow card:Argument
- 90+2′Charlton, yellow card:Argument
- 90+3′Bristol City, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 1
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Charlton
Bristol City
Match report
Charlton and Bristol City share the points in 1-1 Championship draw
Charlton and Bristol City finished level at 1-1 at The Valley on Matchday 9 of the Championship, a result that left the hosts 11th on 13 points and the visitors ninth on 14. Both sides had been level at the break, with all of the scoring done inside the opening half-hour.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Charlton went ahead after eight minutes when Karlan Ahearne-Grant converted a chance created by Tyreece Campbell, putting the home side 1-0 up. The lead lasted until the 27th minute, when Bristol City were awarded a penalty and Scott Twine converted it to make it 1-1.
Neither side found a way through after the interval. Charlton had more of the ball, with 54 per cent possession, but the shot count stayed tight at 12 to 13 in Bristol City's favour, and the visitors' shots on target numbered three to the hosts' four. Referee Tom Reeves had a quiet afternoon, showing three yellow cards and no reds.
The draw extended Charlton's winless run: their previous five league matches brought three draws and two defeats. Bristol City, managed by M. Skubala, arrived on the back of two wins from their last three matches, including a 1-0 home victory over Watford.
Karlan Ahearne-Grant scored Charlton's opener in the eighth minute and earned the match's highest rating of 7.18. Scott Twine was close behind on 7.14 after converting the penalty that levelled it for Bristol City.
Charlton held 54 per cent of possession, yet Bristol City edged the shot count 13 to 12.
Charlton and Bristol City drew 1–1 (half-time 1–1).
Charlton met Bristol City in the Championship (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 11:30 UTC at The Valley. Referee: Tom Reeves.
Team pages: Charlton · Bristol City · Championship
Key moments
- 8' Goal: Karlan Grant (assist: Tyreece Campbell) — 1–0
- 27' Goal (penalty): Scott Twine — 1–1
Starting line-ups
Charlton (4-2-3-1)
Bristol City (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Charlton 33%, the draw 33%, Bristol City 34%. It finished Charlton 1–1 Bristol City.
Anyone's game — Bristol City are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball plus a weak Championship home advantage is not enough to separate them. The draw at 33% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Bristol City at 34%?
Bristol City sit 60 points higher on our strength rating — 1343 to 1403. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 10,361 such games. Bristol City hold 10 more possession points (48 to 38 in recent games) across a 60-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,609 such games where the class table expected 40.6%. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,451 games vs 44.6% across all 101,016 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 33–33–34.
Why only 34%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 34% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 33% and Charlton at 33%.
Why is the draw second, level with the Charlton win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,284. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Out: Robert Dickie, an important player. Doubtful: Noah Eile, a rotation player, and Lorent Tolaj, on a provisional rating. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. Bristol City won 3 of the last 6 meetings with Charlton. The record is 3 wins for Bristol City, 2 draws and 1 win for Charlton. These were 6 Championship games played at both grounds between 26 December 2015 and 3 April 2026. Latest meeting: 3 April 2026 — Charlton 1–2 Bristol City. In 5,637 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.1%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Charlton vs Bristol City final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Charlton 1–1 Bristol City. Explore more on the Charlton and Bristol City team pages or the Championship page.