Match report
Bolton come from level to beat Wolves 3-1 at Molineux
Bolton won 3-1 away at Wolves in a Championship matchday 10 fixture at Molineux Stadium, scoring twice in the final 20 minutes to overturn a contest the hosts had controlled on possession. Atsuki Ito gave the visitors the lead in the 28th minute, and they went into the interval 1-0 ahead.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Wolves levelled five minutes after the restart, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde finishing from a Ladislav Krejčí assist in the 50th minute. The home side held 62% of the ball and had 19 shots to Bolton's 10, but only three of those were on target against six from the visitors.
Bolton regained the lead in the 72nd minute when Samuel Dalby scored from a Gaizka Larrazabal assist, and Joshua Sheehan added a third in the 82nd. The win lifted Bolton from 17th to 14th, while Wolves slipped from sixth to ninth.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Bolton a 9% chance of winning. Wolves travel to Burnley in the Championship on Friday 16 October, and Bolton are away to Southampton the following day.
Joshua Sheehan sealed the result with Bolton's third goal in the 82nd minute and was the top-rated performer on 7.95. Samuel Dalby, who scored the go-ahead goal, was close behind on 7.88.
Wolves won the possession battle 62% to 38% yet lost, with only three of their 19 shots on target.
Bolton won 3–1 away against Wolves (half-time 0–1).
Wolves met Bolton in the Championship (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off was Tuesday, 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Molineux Stadium. Referee: Tim Robinson.
Team pages: Wolves · Bolton · Championship
Key moments
- 28' Goal: Atsuki Ito — 0–1 · Watch Atsuki Ito's goal video (28')
- 50' Goal: Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (assist: Ladislav Krejčí) — 1–1
- 72' Goal: Samuel Dalby (assist: Gaizka Larrazabal) — 1–2
- 82' Goal: Josh Sheehan — 1–3
Starting line-ups
Wolves (4-2-3-1)
Bolton (4-4-2)
- 31 Gavin Bazunu
- 14 Akin Famewo
- 5 Lewis Brunt
- 18 Eoin Toal (c)
- 22 Gaizka Larrazabal
- 11 Thierry Gale
- 21 Ethan Erhahon
- 8 Josh Sheehan
- 16 Samuel Iling-Junior
- 17 Atsuki Ito
- 9 Theo Bair
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Wolves 75%, the draw 16%, Bolton 9%. It finished Wolves 1–3 Bolton.
Strength gap puts Wolves well clear — We give Wolves 75%, mainly because they sit 308 points higher on our strength rating, though home advantage runs weak in the Championship, which pulls slightly towards Bolton. The draw sits at 16%, starting from the usual rate for a strength gap this size and nudged up by the Championship's typical draw rate.
Why Wolves at 75%?
Wolves sit 308 points higher on our strength rating — 1596 to 1287. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge at home won 79.2% of 5,556 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 75–15–10.
Why not higher?
Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,462 games vs 44.6% across all 101,160 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw only 16%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 14.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,166. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Bolton are newly promoted — game 10 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides are said to struggle, but our rating already carries most of it: across 3,012 first-ten games since 2016 they won 26.8% where the rating expected 28.1% — inside the noise band, below it in six of the ten full seasons we hold and about level last season. Out: Yerson Mosquera, an important player, and Raúl Jiménez, a rotation player. Doubtful: Rodrigo Gomes, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Wolves vs Bolton final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Wolves 1–3 Bolton. Explore more on the Wolves and Bolton team pages or the Championship page.