Stoke City vs Middlesbrough — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsStoke City FCYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow5 clips- 48′Middlesbrough, goal:0–1assist
- 50′Stoke City, own goal:1–1Own goal
- 51′Middlesbrough, yellow card:Foul
- 64′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 64′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 67′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 67′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 68′Stoke City, yellow card:Foul
- 73′Middlesbrough, goal:1–2
- 78′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 78′Middlesbrough, substitution:off
- 79′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 79′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 79′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 85′Stoke City, goal:2–2assist
- 90′Middlesbrough, goal:2–3
- Full-time2 – 3
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Key Stats
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Stoke City
Middlesbrough
Match report
Middlesbrough snatch late 3-2 win at Stoke City to keep hold of second place
Middlesbrough won 3-2 at Stoke City in a Championship matchday 10 contest at the bet365 Stadium, with Neto Borges scoring in the 90+1 minute to settle a five-goal game that had been level at 2-2. The defender, playing for Stoke, had earlier turned the ball into his own net.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The match was goalless at half-time before Callum Brittain gave Middlesbrough the lead in the 48th minute, set up by Amario Cozier-Duberry. Stoke were level two minutes later when Neto Borges put through his own goal, but William Lankshear restored the visitors' advantage in the 73rd minute.
Stoke came back again through Róbert Boženík, who scored in the 85th minute from a George Hirst assist, only for Middlesbrough to find a decisive third in stoppage time. The result ended Stoke City's run of 6 games unbeaten and left Middlesbrough second on 21 points, with Stoke seventh on 16.
Middlesbrough had the better of the play, with 66% of possession and 20 shots to 8, nine of them on target against one. Their next game is at home to Cardiff on Saturday 17 October in the Championship, while Stoke travel to Derby on the same day.
William Lankshear scored the 73rd-minute goal that put Middlesbrough back in front and earned the match's top rating, 8.09. Callum Brittain, who opened the scoring, was close behind on 7.88.
Middlesbrough had nine shots on target to Stoke City's one.
Middlesbrough won 3–2 away against Stoke City (half-time 0–0).
Stoke City met Middlesbrough in the Championship (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off was Tuesday, 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at bet365 Stadium. Referee: Elliot Bell.
Team pages: Stoke City · Middlesbrough · Championship
Key moments
- 48' Goal: Callum Brittain (assist: Amario Cozier-Duberry) — 0–1 · Watch Callum Brittain's goal video (48')
- 50' Goal (own goal): Neto Borges — 1–1 · Watch Neto Borges's goal video (50')
- 73' Goal: Will Lankshear — 1–2 · Watch Will Lankshear's goal video (73')
- 85' Goal: Róbert Boženík (assist: George Hirst) — 2–2 · Watch Róbert Boženík's goal video (85')
- 90' Goal: Neto Borges — 2–3 · Watch Neto Borges's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
Stoke City (3-4-3)
Middlesbrough (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Stoke City 32%, the draw 27%, Middlesbrough 41%. It finished Stoke City 2–3 Middlesbrough.
Middlesbrough's stronger rating gives them the edge — Middlesbrough sit 148 points higher on our strength rating, 1531 to 1383, which outweighs Stoke City's usual home advantage, and home sides in the Championship tend to under-perform anyway. The draw starts near 28% for a gap this size, and the high-scoring recent games of both teams, averaging 3.1 goals, outweigh the Championship's usual draw rate and bring it to 27%.
Why Middlesbrough at 41%?
Middlesbrough sit 148 points higher on our strength rating — 1531 to 1383. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,833 such games. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,462 games vs 44.6% across all 101,160 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 31–25–44.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and Stoke City at 32%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,897. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Middlesbrough have averaged 14 percentage points more possession than Stoke City in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Stoke City scored +0.66 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,833 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Stoke City vs Middlesbrough final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Callum Brittain's goal against Stoke City (48').
- Watch Neto Borges's own goal video (50').
- Watch Will Lankshear's goal against Stoke City (73').
- Watch Róbert Boženík's goal against Middlesbrough (85').
- Watch Neto Borges's goal against Stoke City (90').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Stoke City 2–3 Middlesbrough. Explore more on the Stoke City and Middlesbrough team pages or the Championship page.