Cardiff vs Birmingham — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsBirmingham City Football ClubYouTubeMatch Events
- 22′Cardiff, missed penalty:Missed penalty
- 32′Cardiff, goal:1–0assist
- Half-time1 – 0
- 50′Birmingham, yellow card:Foul
- 64′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 64′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 64′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 68′Cardiff, substitution:off
- 68′Cardiff, substitution:off
- 70′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 78′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 81′Birmingham, yellow card:Foul
- 82′Cardiff, yellow card:Foul
- 87′Cardiff, substitution:off
- 90+3′Cardiff, substitution:off
- 90+5′Birmingham, yellow card:Chris DaviesDissent
- Full-time1 – 0
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Cardiff
Birmingham
Match report
Cardiff end Birmingham's unbeaten run with Salech's first-half winner
Cardiff beat Birmingham 1-0 at Cardiff City Stadium in the Championship on matchday 12, a result that ended the visitors' run of five games unbeaten. The match was decided by a single goal in the 31st minute, and the home side held on to the lead through a second half in which Birmingham were unable to find a reply.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Yousef Salech scored the only goal after 31 minutes, finishing a move created by Ollie Tanner. That put Cardiff 1-0 ahead, and the score remained that way through to half-time and beyond. Birmingham, who had arrived with 12 goals in their previous five games, failed to score for the first time in that spell.
The result lifted Cardiff from 20th to 16th and left them on 14 points, six behind Birmingham, who dropped from fifth to eighth on 20 points. Cardiff's next game is away to Wolves in the Championship on Saturday 31 October, while Birmingham travel to Lincoln on the same day.
Salech scored the decisive goal and was the highest-rated performer on the pitch with a rating of 7.72. Will Fish (7.32) and Jack Moylan (7.15) were the next best-rated players, both on Cardiff's side.
Cardiff had 16 shots to Birmingham's 7, a gap that reflected how much of the match was played in the visitors' half.
Cardiff beat Birmingham 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Cardiff met Birmingham in the Championship (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off was Saturday, 24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Cardiff City Stadium. Referee: Tim Robinson.
Team pages: Cardiff · Birmingham · Championship
Key moments
- 32' Goal: Yousef Salech (assist: Ollie Tanner) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Cardiff (4-2-3-1)
- 1 Nathan Trott
- 23 Calum Scanlon
- 3 Joel Bagan
- 2 Will Fish
- 38 Perry Ng (c)
- 8 Jack Moylan
- 18 Alex Robertson
- 45 Cian Ashford
- 27 Joel Colwill
- 11 Ollie Tanner
- 9 Yousef Salech
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Cardiff 32%, the draw 27%, Birmingham 41%. It finished Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham.
Birmingham's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — Birmingham sit 134 points higher on our strength rating, 1486 to 1352, and home sides in the Championship tend to under-perform, so we give them 41% despite Cardiff's usual home advantage. The draw sits at 27%, close to the usual rate for this gap, with high-scoring recent games for both sides pulling it down and the Championship's typical draw rate nudging it back up.
Why Birmingham at 41%?
Birmingham sit 134 points higher on our strength rating — 1486 to 1352. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,788 such games. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,488 games vs 44.6% across all 107,859 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 33–24–43.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and Cardiff at 32%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,375. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Cardiff have averaged 14 percentage points more possession than Birmingham in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Cardiff are unbeaten in their 5 home Championship games this season: 2 wins and 3 draws. Season's home results covered: 17 August 2026 to 13 October 2026 (UTC dates). Latest home result: 13 October 2026 — Cardiff 5–1 Watford. Across 5,295 historical matches involving hosts unbeaten at home that season after at least five home games, those hosts won 59.3%, compared with 56.3% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Cardiff vs Birmingham final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham. Explore more on the Cardiff and Birmingham team pages or the Championship page.