Portsmouth vs Millwall — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsMillwall FCYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow2 clips- 6′Millwall, goal:0–1
- 16′Portsmouth, own goal:1–1Own goal
- 24′Millwall, yellow card:Argument
- 45′Millwall, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time1 – 1
- 61′Portsmouth, substitution:off
- 62′Portsmouth, substitution:off
- 68′Millwall, substitution:off
- 68′Millwall, substitution:off
- 71′Portsmouth, yellow card:Foul
- 72′Portsmouth, substitution:off
- 75′Millwall, substitution:off
- 76′Millwall, substitution:off
- 82′Portsmouth, goal:2–1
- 87′Millwall, substitution:off
- 90+4′Portsmouth, yellow card:Argument
- Full-time2 – 1
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Portsmouth
Millwall
Match report
Waddingham strikes late as Portsmouth beat Millwall at Fratton Park
Portsmouth beat Millwall 2-1 in the Championship at Fratton Park on Matchday 12, Thomas Waddingham scoring the winner eight minutes from time after a first half that ended level at 1-1.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Millwall took the lead in the sixth minute through Jenson Metcalfe, giving them an early advantage. Portsmouth were level by the 16th minute, though not through their own efforts: Lyndon Dykes turned the ball into his own net to make it 1-1, and neither side found a way through before the interval.
The second half stayed tight until the 82nd minute, when Waddingham scored to put Portsmouth 2-1 in front. Millwall had more of the ball, with 52 per cent of possession, but could not find an equaliser. The result lifted Portsmouth from 13th to ninth, on 18 points, while Millwall, still on 15 points, dropped to 13th.
Both sides are back in action on Saturday 31 October, Portsmouth away to Burnley and Millwall at home to Derby, in the Championship.
Metcalfe scored Millwall's opener and earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch, 8.2, despite finishing on the losing side. Waddingham, whose 82nd-minute goal won it for Portsmouth, was rated 7.83.
Millwall had 10 shots to Portsmouth's 7, yet only one of them was on target against two for the home side.
Portsmouth beat Millwall 2–1 (half-time 1–1).
Portsmouth met Millwall in the Championship (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off was Saturday, 24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC at Fratton Park. Referee: Tom Reeves.
Team pages: Portsmouth · Millwall · Championship
Key moments
- 6' Goal: Jenson Metcalfe — 0–1 · Watch Jenson Metcalfe's goal video (6')
- 16' Goal (own goal): Lyndon Dykes — 1–1
- 82' Goal: Thomas Waddingham — 2–1 · Watch Thomas Waddingham's goal video (82')
Starting line-ups
Portsmouth (4-2-3-1)
Millwall (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Portsmouth 41%, the draw 29%, Millwall 30%. It finished Portsmouth 2–1 Millwall.
Home advantage edges Portsmouth ahead of stronger Millwall — We give Portsmouth 41% because the usual home advantage and their greater share of the ball (52 to 45 in recent games) outweigh Millwall's 58-point edge on our strength rating. The draw sits at 29%, close to its usual rate for a gap this size, with the Championship's higher draw rate offset by Portsmouth's control and typical scoring.
Why Portsmouth at 41%?
Home ground, against the rating. Millwall sit 58 points higher on our strength rating — 1469 to 1411. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.5% of 11,084 such games. Portsmouth hold 7 more possession points (52 to 45 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.3% of 5,590 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 41%?
Because Millwall are the stronger side on our strength rating. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,488 games vs 44.6% across all 107,859 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,159. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Millwall won 4 of the last 6 meetings with Portsmouth. The record is 4 wins for Millwall, 0 draws and 2 wins for Portsmouth. These were 2 League Cup games and 4 Championship games played at both grounds between 10 August 2021 and 21 February 2026. Latest meeting: 21 February 2026 — Millwall 1–3 Portsmouth. Millwall lead the 6-match record, although Portsmouth won the latest encounter. In 6,072 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%. Portsmouth on 3 days' rest, Millwall on 7. Once class is accounted for, rest gaps stopped mattering — across 44,899 measured games no rest advantage repeated.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Portsmouth vs Millwall final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Jenson Metcalfe's goal against Portsmouth (6').
- Watch Thomas Waddingham's goal against Millwall (82').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Portsmouth 2–1 Millwall. Explore more on the Portsmouth and Millwall team pages or the Championship page.