Blackburn vs Stoke City — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsStoke City FCYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow3 clips- 30′Stoke City, yellow card:Foul
- 33′Blackburn, yellow card:Time wasting
- 41′Blackburn, substitution:off
- 43′Stoke City, goal:0–1
- Half-time0 – 1
- 46′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 58′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 62′Stoke City, yellow card:Foul
- 67′Blackburn, substitution:off
- 67′Blackburn, substitution:off
- 67′Blackburn, substitution:off
- 68′Stoke City, own goal:0–2Own goal
- 74′Stoke City, yellow card:Time wasting
- 78′Blackburn, substitution:off
- 81′Blackburn, yellow card:Dissent
- 82′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 82′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 85′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 87′Blackburn, goal:1–2
- 90′Blackburn, yellow card:Dissent
- 90+2′Stoke City, yellow card:Argument
- Full-time1 – 2
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Blackburn
Stoke City
Match report
Stoke City beat Blackburn 2-1 at Ewood Park to climb to third
Stoke City won 2-1 at Blackburn on Championship matchday 14 at Ewood Park, with Jack McGlynn's first-half goal and a Moussa Baradji own goal enough to settle a contest Blackburn threatened to rescue late on. The result lifted Stoke from seventh to third in the table.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The match was goalless until McGlynn put the visitors in front in the 43rd minute, and Stoke went into the interval 1-0 up. Blackburn had the greater share of the ball across the match, with 58 per cent possession and 14 shots to 11, but Stoke were just as accurate, each side putting three efforts on target.
Stoke doubled their lead in the 68th minute when Baradji turned the ball into his own net, making it 2-0. Blackburn pulled one back through Andri Guðjohnsen in the 87th minute and pressed for an equaliser, but could not find a second goal. Guðjohnsen's strike was the only goal in the final 22 minutes.
Stoke finished the night on 26 points, eight clear of Blackburn in 14th, with the home side on 18. Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Stoke City a 27% chance of winning. Both sides play again on Saturday 7 November in the Championship, Stoke away to Portsmouth and Blackburn at home to West Ham.
McGlynn scored the opening goal on 43 minutes and was the top-rated performer on the night with 8.11. Guðjohnsen was Blackburn's best-rated player at 7.44 after his late consolation goal.
Blackburn had 58 per cent of the possession but still lost, with Stoke City limiting them to three shots on target.
Stoke City won 2–1 away against Blackburn (half-time 0–1).
Blackburn met Stoke City in the Championship (Regular Season - 14). Kick-off was Tuesday, 3 November 2026, 19:45 UTC at Ewood Park. Referee: Andrew Kitchen.
Team pages: Blackburn · Stoke City · Championship
Key moments
- 43' Goal: Jack McGlynn — 0–1 · Watch Jack McGlynn's goal video (43')
- 68' Goal (own goal): Moussa Baradji — 0–2 · Watch Moussa Baradji's goal video (68')
- 87' Goal: Andri Guðjohnsen — 1–2 · Watch Andri Guðjohnsen's goal video (87')
Starting line-ups
Blackburn (4-2-3-1)
Stoke City (3-4-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Blackburn 46%, the draw 27%, Stoke City 27%. It finished Blackburn 1–2 Stoke City.
Stoke's hot finishing likely to cool, Blackburn lean — With the sides almost level on our strength rating, Stoke City's recent scoring above their chances is the main reason we give Blackburn 46%, since streaks like that tend to cool, though weak home advantage in the Championship pulls back slightly. The draw sits at 27%, near its usual 27.5% starting point, with finishing streaks lowering it and the league's draw rate raising it.
Why Blackburn in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1407 to 1394. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,583 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%). Stoke City scored +0.61 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.5% of 1,668 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 46%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.3% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,511 games vs 44.6% across all 108,367 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Blackburn scored +0.39 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,672 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing.
Why is the draw second, level with the Stoke City win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,383. The cool-off factor takes 2.2 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Stoke City have gained 87 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 11,995 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Out: Ryoya Morishita, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Blackburn vs Stoke City final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Jack McGlynn's goal against Blackburn (43').
- Watch Moussa Baradji's own goal video (68').
- Watch Andri Guðjohnsen's goal against Stoke City (87').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Blackburn 1–2 Stoke City. Explore more on the Blackburn and Stoke City team pages or the Championship page.