Match report
PAU hold off Guingamp comeback bid to win 2-1 at Stade de Roudourou
PAU won 2-1 at Guingamp in Ligue 2 on matchday 9, building a two-goal half-time lead and then withstanding a late push from the hosts at Stade de Roudourou. The result lifted the visitors from eighth to sixth in the table, on 14 points, while Guingamp slipped from 11th to 13th on 8.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Cheikh Fall opened the scoring in the sixth minute, finishing a move created by Lorenzo Rajot. Bilal Brahimi doubled the advantage in the 33rd minute, with Anthony Briançon providing the assist, and PAU went into the interval 2-0 ahead.
Guingamp dominated the ball after the break and throughout, finishing with 64 per cent possession and 19 shots to 8. Teddy Averlant pulled one back in the 75th minute, but the hosts could not find an equaliser. It was their third successive defeat.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given PAU a 26% chance of winning. Both sides play again on Friday 23 October in Ligue 2: Guingamp travel to Clermont Foot, while PAU host Grenoble.
Cheikh Fall scored the opening goal after six minutes and earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch, 8.2. Teddy Averlant, who scored Guingamp's goal, was the next-best performer for the hosts with a rating of 7.74.
Guingamp had 19 shots to PAU's 8, yet still lost.
PAU won 2–1 away against Guingamp (half-time 0–2).
Guingamp met PAU in the Ligue 2 (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off was Friday, 16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC at Stade de Roudourou. Referee: T. Vincent.
Key moments
- 6' Goal: Cheikh Fall (assist: Lorenzo Rajot) — 0–1 · Watch Cheikh Fall's goal video (6')
- 33' Goal: Bilal Brahimi (assist: Anthony Briançon) — 0–2 · Watch Bilal Brahimi's goal video (33')
- 75' Goal: Teddy Averlant — 1–2 · Watch Teddy Averlant's goal video (75')
Starting line-ups
Guingamp (4-4-2)
PAU (5-3-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Guingamp 46%, the draw 28%, PAU 26%. It finished Guingamp 1–2 PAU.
Guingamp's control of the ball gives them a slight lean — We give Guingamp 46%, mainly because they usually hold more of the ball, 54 to 49 possession in recent games, while PAU edge our strength rating by the narrowest of margins, 1421 to 1414. The draw sits at 28%, just above the usual 27% for sides this level, nudged up by typical scoring in both teams' recent games.
Why Guingamp in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1414 to 1421. Sides this close won 42.6% of 14,823 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 30.3%). Guingamp hold 5 more possession points (54 to 49 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.2% of 5,146 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 46%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 28% and PAU at 26%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the PAU win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,336. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
PAU come into this after a busy window — 21 arrivals, 18 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336).
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Guingamp vs PAU final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Ligue 2 fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Cheikh Fall's goal against Guingamp (6').
- Watch Bilal Brahimi's goal against Guingamp (33').
- Watch Teddy Averlant's goal against PAU (75').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Guingamp 1–2 PAU. Explore more on the Guingamp and PAU team pages or the Ligue 2 page.