FSV Mainz 05 vs 10.10.26 13:303 – 4Full Time
Bayer Leverkusen — Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Bayer Leverkusen hold off late Mainz rally to win seven-goal Bundesliga thriller
Bayer Leverkusen won 4-3 away to FSV Mainz 05 at the MEWA Arena on Bundesliga matchday 5, edging a seven-goal contest after a late scare. Robert Andrich opened the scoring in the fifth minute, and Patrik Schick added a second four minutes later from an Aleix García assist.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Mainz, though, were not out of it. Anthony Caci pulled one back in the 33rd minute and struck again in the 42nd, set up by Nadiem Amiri, to send the sides in level at 2-2 at half-time.
Leverkusen regained the lead through Jarell Quansah in the 55th minute, and Moussa Diaby made it 4-2 on 65 minutes after a pass from Afonso Moreira. Benedict Hollerbach reduced the deficit in the second minute of stoppage time, but Mainz could not find an equaliser.
The result lifted Leverkusen to 10 points from five games, fourth in the table, while Mainz stayed seventh on 7 points.
Anthony Caci scored twice for Mainz, in the 33rd and 42nd minutes, and earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch at 8.94 despite finishing on the losing side.
Mainz had 23 shots to Leverkusen's 16, yet Leverkusen put seven of theirs on target to Mainz's five.
Bayer Leverkusen won 4–3 away against FSV Mainz 05 (half-time 2–2).
FSV Mainz 05 met Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC at MEWA Arena. Referee: Max Burda. Attendance: 33,000.
Team pages: FSV Mainz 05 · Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga
Key moments
- 5' Goal: Robert Andrich — 0–1 · Watch Robert Andrich's goal video (5')
- 9' Goal: Patrik Schick (assist: Aleix García) — 0–2 · Watch Patrik Schick's goal video (9')
- 33' Goal: Anthony Caci — 1–2 · Watch Anthony Caci's goal video (33')
- 42' Goal: Anthony Caci (assist: Nadiem Amiri) — 2–2
- 55' Goal: Jarell Quansah — 2–3
- 65' Goal: Moussa Diaby (assist: Afonso Moreira) — 2–4
- 90+2' Goal: Benedict Hollerbach — 3–4
Starting line-ups
FSV Mainz 05 (3-5-2)
Bayer Leverkusen (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave FSV Mainz 05 27%, the draw 26%, Bayer Leverkusen 47%. It finished FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Bayer Leverkusen's rating edge outweighs FSV Mainz 05's home ground — Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball plus the early-season home fade on top give Bayer Leverkusen the lean. The draw at 26% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Bayer Leverkusen at 47%?
Bayer Leverkusen sit 115 points higher on our strength rating — 1684 to 1799. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,810 such games. Bayer Leverkusen hold 11 more possession points (59 to 48 in recent games) across a 115-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,609 such games where the class table expected 40.6%. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims FSV Mainz 05's column. Across 11,252 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 30–30–40.
Why only 47%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 47% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and FSV Mainz 05 at 27%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.9 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,847. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Bayer Leverkusen won 4 of the last 6 meetings with FSV Mainz 05. The record is 4 wins for Bayer Leverkusen, 2 draws and 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05. These were 6 Bundesliga games played at both grounds between 30 September 2023 and 28 February 2026. Latest meeting: 28 February 2026 — Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 FSV Mainz 05. In 5,637 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.1%.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Robert Andrich's goal against FSV Mainz 05 (5').
- Watch Patrik Schick's goal against FSV Mainz 05 (9').
- Watch Anthony Caci's goal against Bayer Leverkusen (33').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen. Explore more on the FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen team pages or the Bundesliga page.