Casa Pia vs 10.10.26 19:300 – 1Full Time
Santa Clara — Primeira Liga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Vasconcelos stoppage-time goal gives Santa Clara win at 10-man Casa Pia
Santa Clara won 1-0 at Casa Pia in Primeira Liga Matchday 8, João Vasconcelos scoring in the second minute of stoppage time to settle a tight contest at the Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior. The two sides were goalless at half-time, with little to separate them before the break.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The match turned seven minutes into the second half, when Casa Pia's David Sousa was shown a red card in the 52nd minute. Santa Clara took control of possession from there, finishing with 62 per cent of the ball and 14 shots to Casa Pia's five, and won seven corners to three.
For long periods, though, the visitors struggled to make that advantage count. Each side managed only two shots on target, and Casa Pia stayed in the contest until the 90+2 mark. Then Lucas Soares picked out Vasconcelos, who scored to make it 1-0.
The result lifted Santa Clara, managed by Petit, to 18 points from eight games and third in the table. Casa Pia, coached by Filipe Coelho, remained 17th on four points and have lost four of their last five league matches.
Vasconcelos scored the only goal of the game in stoppage time and earned the highest rating of any player, 8.2. Soares provided the assist for it and was rated 7.21.
Santa Clara had 14 shots to Casa Pia's five, yet only two of them were on target, the same number as the hosts.
Santa Clara won 1–0 away against Casa Pia (half-time 0–0).
Casa Pia met Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 19:30 UTC at Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior. Referee: Iancu Ioan Vasilica.
Team pages: Casa Pia · Santa Clara · Primeira Liga
Key moments
- 52' Red card: David Sousa
- 90+2' Goal: João Vasconcelos (assist: Lucas Soares) — 0–1
Starting line-ups
Casa Pia (4-2-3-1)
Santa Clara (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Casa Pia 34%, the draw 30%, Santa Clara 36%. It finished Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara.
Santa Clara's rating edge outweighs Casa Pia's home ground — Santa Clara are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Santa Clara's 36%. The draw at 30% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Santa Clara at 36%?
Santa Clara sit 133 points higher on our strength rating — 1414 to 1547. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,810 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 34–28–38.
Why only 36%?
Casa Pia sit -0.49 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,497 such games where the class table expected 35.9%.
Why the draw at 30%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.2 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,728. The goals environment adds 3.1 points to the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Santa Clara have gained 67 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 39.9% of 11,169 such games vs 40.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Casa Pia have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Casa Pia vs Santa Clara final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Primeira Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara. Explore more on the Casa Pia and Santa Clara team pages or the Primeira Liga page.