Academico Viseu vs 10.10.26 19:302 – 1Full Time
Estoril — Primeira Liga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Academico Viseu snatch late win over Estoril at Estadio do Fontelo
Academico Viseu beat Estoril 2-1 in the Primeira Liga on Matchday 8, with Soufiane Messeguem's goal in the 88th minute settling a contest that had looked headed for a draw. The result lifted the hosts, who began the day fifth with 14 points from eight games, while Estoril, 18th with two points, remained stuck near the foot of the table.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Cihan Kahraman put Viseu ahead in the 29th minute, converting a chance created by Anthony Correia, and the hosts took a 1-0 lead into the interval. Estoril levelled in the 56th minute when Rafik Guitane scored from a João Carvalho assist, restoring parity after a spell in which the visitors had been trailing.
The match then stayed finely balanced until the closing stages. Alejandro Mestanza supplied the pass for Messeguem's late winner, and Viseu held on for the three points. Neither side had a player sent off, though Viseu were booked three times to Estoril's once.
Ewerton earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch, 8.18, without registering a goal or an assist. Guitane, who scored Estoril's equaliser, was the next best-rated on 7.89.
Estoril had nine of their 15 shots on target, compared with six of 15 for Viseu, but still lost.
Academico Viseu beat Estoril 2–1 (half-time 1–0).
Academico Viseu met Estoril in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 19:30 UTC at Estadio do Fontelo. Referee: Cláudio Pereira.
Team pages: Academico Viseu · Estoril · Primeira Liga
Key moments
- 29' Goal: Cihan Kahraman (assist: Anthony Correia) — 1–0
- 56' Goal: Rafik Guitane (assist: João Carvalho) — 1–1
- 88' Goal: Soufiane Messeguem (assist: Alejandro Mestanza) — 2–1
Starting line-ups
Academico Viseu (4-2-3-1)
Estoril (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Academico Viseu 43%, the draw 31%, Estoril 26%. It finished Academico Viseu 2–1 Estoril.
Academico Viseu lead despite Estoril's cold finishing due to recover — Academico Viseu are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and that is most of Academico Viseu's 43%. The draw at 31% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Academico Viseu at 43%?
Academico Viseu sit 71 points higher on our strength rating — 1517 to 1447. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.2% of 10,378 such games.
Why only 43%?
Estoril sit -0.33 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 31.7% of 1,357 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Estoril win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.0 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,728. The goals environment adds 3.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Academico Viseu are newly promoted — game 8 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides are said to struggle, but our rating already carries most of it: across 3,012 first-ten games since 2016 they won 26.8% where the rating expected 28.1% — inside the noise band, below it in six of the ten full seasons we hold and about level last season. Last five: Academico Viseu D-L-W-W-W, Estoril L-L-D-L-L — Academico Viseu are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 43.3% of 1897 games when clearly hotter and 43.7% of 3639 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Academico Viseu vs Estoril final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Primeira Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Academico Viseu 2–1 Estoril. Explore more on the Academico Viseu and Estoril team pages or the Primeira Liga page.