Energie Cottbus vs 29.08.26 11:003 – 4Full Time
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — 2. Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Fürth edge seven-goal thriller at Cottbus despite late rally
Energie Cottbus lost 4-3 to SpVgg Greuther Fürth in a chaotic 2. Bundesliga round three fixture at the LEAG Energie Stadion, a game that swung repeatedly before Fürth held on. Cottbus started fastest, with L. Copado converting a Leonardo Bittencourt assist after just six minutes to give the hosts an early lead.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Fürth levelled right at the end of the first half when Felix Klaus scored from the penalty spot in the third minute of stoppage time, sending the sides in level at 1-1. The match turned further in the second half when Fousseny Doumbia turned the ball into his own net two minutes after the restart, handing Fürth a 2-1 advantage they would not relinquish for long.
Cottbus responded through Tolcay Ciğerci, who fired home another Bittencourt assist in the 70th minute to make it 2-2, but Fürth struck twice in quick succession as Ole Pohlmann restored the lead two minutes later and Klaus added his second, teed up by Omar Sillah, in the 80th minute. Dmytro Bohdanov's stoppage-time finish, assisted by Justin Butler, proved only a consolation as Fürth held on for a 4-3 win.
Cottbus dominated possession at 54% and outshot their visitors 23 to 15, generating an xG of 3.07 compared to Fürth's 1.99, yet it was the away side's efficiency that decided the contest.
Bittencourt did not find the net himself but set up both of Cottbus's open-play goals, and his two assists made him the top-rated performer on the pitch with a mark of 8.5.
Despite generating a superior xG of 3.07 to Fürth's 1.99, Cottbus were undone by their inability to convert that territorial and creative advantage into victory.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 4–3 away against Energie Cottbus (half-time 1–1).
Energie Cottbus met SpVgg Greuther Fürth in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 3). Kick-off was Saturday, 29 August 2026, 11:00 UTC at LEAG Energie Stadion. Referee: F. Weller.
Team pages: Energie Cottbus · SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 2. Bundesliga
Key moments
- 6' Goal: Lucas Copado (assist: Leonardo Bittencourt) — 1–0 · Watch Lucas Copado's goal video (6')
- 45' Goal (penalty): Felix Klaus — 1–1 · Watch Felix Klaus's goal video (45')
- 47' Goal (own goal): Fousseny Doumbia — 1–2 · Watch Fousseny Doumbia's goal video (47')
- 70' Goal: Tolcay Ciğerci (assist: Leonardo Bittencourt) — 2–2 · Watch Tolcay Ciğerci's goal video (70')
- 72' Goal: Ole Pohlmann — 2–3 · Watch Ole Pohlmann's goal video (72')
- 80' Goal: Felix Klaus (assist: Omar Sillah) — 2–4 · Watch Felix Klaus's goal video (80')
- 90' Goal: Dmytro Bohdanov (assist: Justin Butler) — 3–4 · Watch Dmytro Bohdanov's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
Energie Cottbus (4-2-3-1)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Energie Cottbus 50%, the draw 27%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 23%. It finished Energie Cottbus 3–4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Energie Cottbus' rating edge, but the draw is in play — Energie Cottbus are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Energie Cottbus' 50%. The draw at 27% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Energie Cottbus at 50%?
Energie Cottbus sit 104 points higher on our strength rating — 1537 to 1433. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,750 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 57–21–22.
Why only 50%?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit -0.44 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,392 such games where the class table expected 36.3%. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold 12 more possession points (52 to 40 in recent games) across a 104-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,634 such games where the class table expected 41.3%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,900. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw. The control factor adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Energie Cottbus are unbeaten in their last 13 league games at home. Rolling home runs look imposing but sides on a 6+ run won 56.3% of 13,540 games vs 54.6% class-expected — and in our walked test the rating already carried it. Energie Cottbus are newly promoted — game 3 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides ran below their rating in nine of the last ten seasons — 26.5% wins in their first ten games where the rating expected 30.0% (2,793 games since 2012), fading but still visible through game nineteen. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this 2. Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Lucas Copado's goal against SpVgg Greuther Fürth (6').
- Watch Felix Klaus's goal against Energie Cottbus (45').
- Watch Fousseny Doumbia's own goal video (47').
- Watch Tolcay Ciğerci's goal against SpVgg Greuther Fürth (70').
- Watch Ole Pohlmann's goal against Energie Cottbus (72').
- Watch Felix Klaus's goal against Energie Cottbus (80').
- Watch Dmytro Bohdanov's goal against SpVgg Greuther Fürth (90').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Energie Cottbus 3–4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Explore more on the Energie Cottbus and SpVgg Greuther Fürth team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.