HighlightsLega BYouTubeMatch Events
- 7′Padova, goal:0–1assist
- 9′Padova, VAR review:Goal confirmed
- 42′Palermo, yellow card:Foul
- 44′Palermo, goal:1–1assist
- Half-time1 – 1
- 46′Palermo, substitution:off
- 46′Palermo, substitution:off
- 53′Padova, substitution:off
- 61′Padova, yellow card:Foul
- 66′Palermo, yellow card:Foul
- 67′Palermo, substitution:off
- 69′Padova, substitution:off
- 69′Padova, substitution:off
- 76′Palermo, substitution:off
- 82′Palermo, substitution:off
- 83′Palermo, goal:2–1assist
- 84′Padova, substitution:off
- 84′Padova, substitution:off
- 90+1′Padova, red card:Professional foul last man
- Full-time2 – 1
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Palermo
Padova
Match report
Vavassori double lifts Palermo past Padova to stay top of Serie B
Palermo beat Padova 2-1 at the Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B on Matchday 5, with Dominic Vavassori scoring twice, including the winner seven minutes from time. The result took Palermo to 13 points from five games and first place in the table, and it extended their unbeaten run to eight games.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Padova went ahead after seven minutes when Christian Pastina finished a move created by Matteo Cocchi. Palermo took time to respond but levelled one minute before the interval, Vavassori converting from Dennis Johnsen's pass to make it 1-1 at half-time.
The second half was tight until the 83rd minute, when Johnsen again supplied Vavassori, who put Palermo 2-1 ahead. Padova were reduced to ten men in the 90+1 minute when Lorenzo Carissoni was sent off, and the home side saw out the remaining time. Palermo finished with 22 shots to Padova's 20, though Padova won 11 corners to seven.
Vavassori scored both of Palermo's goals and earned a rating of 9.2, the highest of any player on the pitch. Johnsen created both of them and was rated 8.3.
Palermo had 22 shots to Padova's 20, but seven of them were on target against five for the visitors.
Palermo beat Padova 2–1 (half-time 1–1).
Palermo met Padova in the Serie B (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Saturday, 19 September 2026, 13:00 UTC at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Referee: Marco Di Bello.
Key moments
- 7' Goal: Christian Pastina (assist: Matteo Cocchi) — 0–1
- 44' Goal: Dominic Vavassori (assist: Dennis Johnsen) — 1–1
- 83' Goal: Dominic Vavassori (assist: Dennis Johnsen) — 2–1
- 90+1' Red card: Lorenzo Carissoni
Starting line-ups
Palermo (4-2-3-1)
Padova (3-5-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Palermo 60%, the draw 31%, Padova 9%. It finished Palermo 2–1 Padova.
Palermo's rating gap, but the draw is in play — Palermo are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Palermo's 60%. The draw at 31% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Palermo at 60%?
Palermo sit 254 points higher on our strength rating — 1651 to 1397. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge at home won 67.1% of 6,004 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 66–20–14.
Why only 60%?
Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.2% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.2%). Serie B homes won 41.7% of 4,053 games vs 44.9% across all 100,303 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Palermo's column. Across 11,181 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Padova win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,851. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.4 points. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Palermo are unbeaten in their last 16 home Serie B games: 15 wins and 1 draw. The run began on 1 November 2025. Last recorded home league defeat: 28 October 2025 — Palermo 0–3 Monza. Latest home league result: 7 September 2026 — Palermo 3–1 Sampdoria. Across 13,631 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 56.3%, compared with 54.5% expected from team strength. Padova have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Palermo vs Padova final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie B fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Palermo 2–1 Padova. Explore more on the Palermo and Padova team pages or the Serie B page.