HighlightsLega BYouTubeMatch Events
- 22′Carrarese, yellow card:Foul
- 26′Palermo, goal:1–0assist
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 61′Palermo, substitution:off
- 61′Palermo, substitution:off
- 65′Palermo, substitution:off
- 67′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 68′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 74′Carrarese, goal:1–1assist
- 80′Palermo, goal:2–1
- 82′Palermo, substitution:off
- 82′Palermo, substitution:off
- 89′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 89′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 90+3′Carrarese, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time2 – 1
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Palermo
Carrarese
Match report
Palermo beat Carrarese 2-1 to stay top of Serie B
Palermo won 2-1 at the Renzo Barbera in Serie B on Matchday 8, with Dominic Vavassori scoring the decisive goal ten minutes from time. The result lifted the leaders to 22 points from eight games and kept them first, 15 points clear of 16th-placed Carrarese.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Dennis Johnsen put the hosts ahead in the 26th minute, finishing from Hernani's assist, and Palermo took that 1-0 lead into the interval. Carrarese drew level in the 74th minute when Tommaso Rubino scored from G. Marconi's assist, but the visitors' equaliser lasted only six minutes.
Vavassori restored the lead in the 80th minute and Palermo held on. The hosts had 19 shots to 15 and put seven on target to Carrarese's four, though the visitors had 59 per cent of the possession and the greater share of the corners. Palermo have now won four games in a row and are unbeaten in 11.
Carrarese stay on seven points, having come into the game on the back of a 2-1 win over Modena. Both sides are in Serie B action again on Wednesday: Palermo travel to Pisa, while Carrarese host Arezzo.
Vavassori, the match-winner, took the highest rating of the day at 8.03 for his 80th-minute goal. Rubino, who equalised for Carrarese, was close behind on 8.01.
Carrarese held 59 per cent of the possession but still lost, with Palermo making more of their share of the ball by getting seven shots on target to four.
Palermo beat Carrarese 2–1 (half-time 1–0).
Palermo met Carrarese in the Serie B (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off was Sunday, 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Renzo Barbera. Referee: M. Drigo.
Key moments
- 26' Goal: Dennis Johnsen (assist: Hernani) — 1–0
- 74' Goal: Tommaso Rubino (assist: G. Marconi) — 1–1
- 80' Goal: Dominic Vavassori — 2–1
Starting line-ups
Palermo (4-2-3-1)
Carrarese (3-5-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Palermo 64%, the draw 28%, Carrarese 8%. It finished Palermo 2–1 Carrarese.
Palermo's strength gap drives a clear lead — We give Palermo 64% mainly because our strength rating puts them 237 points higher, 1587 to 1350, though home sides in Serie B generally do less well than the global norm, which pulls slightly towards Carrarese. The draw sits at 28%, up from a usual 20% for a gap this size, raised mostly by Serie B's high draw rate.
Why Palermo at 64%?
Palermo sit 237 points higher on our strength rating — 1587 to 1350. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.9% of 7,060 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 68–20–12.
Why only 64%?
Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.3% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.0%). Serie B homes won 41.6% of 4,090 games vs 44.6% across all 107,949 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Carrarese win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.9%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,316. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 6.9 points. The goals environment adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Palermo have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Carrarese in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Palermo have gained 93 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.0% of 11,940 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Palermo vs Carrarese final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie B fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Palermo 2–1 Carrarese. Explore more on the Palermo and Carrarese team pages or the Serie B page.