HighlightsLega BYouTubeMatch Events
- 20′Padova, goal:0–1assist
- 41′Padova, yellow card:Argument
- 41′Padova, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time0 – 1
- 46′Avellino, substitution:off
- 59′Avellino, substitution:off
- 59′Avellino, substitution:off
- 66′Padova, substitution:off
- 74′Avellino, substitution:off
- 77′Padova, substitution:off
- 77′Padova, substitution:off
- 82′Avellino, substitution:off
- 90′Padova, substitution:off
- 90′Padova, substitution:off
- Full-time0 – 1
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Avellino
Padova
Match report
Padova hold firm to beat Avellino 1-0 despite being outshot 28 to 8
Padova won 1-0 at Avellino's Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Serie B on Matchday 8, despite being heavily outplayed for long spells. Emanuele Zuelli scored the only goal of the afternoon, and the visitors protected that lead for the remaining 70 minutes.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The goal arrived in the 20th minute, Zuelli finishing after a pass from Gabriele Artistico to put Padova 1-0 up. Avellino, who had 69% of the possession to Padova's 31%, spent the rest of the match pressing for an equaliser but found no way through. It was still 1-0 at half-time and stayed that way to the final whistle.
The result lifted Padova from 16th to 10th, on 10 points, one behind eighth-placed Avellino, who dropped from seventh to eighth on 11. It also ended a run of three defeats in a row for Padova. Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Padova a 19% chance of winning. Both sides play again on Tuesday 27 October, Padova at home to Sudtirol and Avellino away to Virtus Entella.
Alessandro Sorrentino was the highest-rated player on the pitch at 8.58, while match-winner Zuelli, who scored the only goal, followed with a rating of 8.2.
Avellino had 28 shots to Padova's 8, yet only seven of them were on target and none beat the visitors' defence.
Padova won 1–0 away against Avellino (half-time 0–1).
Avellino met Padova in the Serie B (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off was Saturday, 24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC at Partenio-Adriano Lombardi. Referee: Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi.
Key moments
- 20' Goal: Emanuele Zuelli (assist: Gabriele Artistico) — 0–1
Starting line-ups
Avellino (3-5-2)
Padova (3-1-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Avellino 46%, the draw 35%, Padova 19%. It finished Avellino 0–1 Padova.
Avellino edge it on strength, with the draw live — Avellino lead mainly because our strength rating has them a shade stronger, 1386 to 1313, though home advantage runs weak in Serie B, which pulls things back towards Padova. The draw sits at 35%, up from a usual 27% for a gap this size, mostly because draws are common in Serie B.
Why Avellino at 46%?
Avellino sit 73 points higher on our strength rating — 1386 to 1313. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,069 such games.
Why only 46%?
Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.3% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.0%). Serie B homes won 41.6% of 4,083 games vs 44.6% across all 107,859 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Padova win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,297. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.0 points. The goals environment adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Padova have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Last five: Avellino W-D-L-W-D, Padova L-W-L-L-L — Avellino are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 43.9% of 2023 games when clearly hotter and 43.9% of 3918 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Avellino vs Padova final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie B fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Avellino 0–1 Padova. Explore more on the Avellino and Padova team pages or the Serie B page.