FC Porto vs 20.10.26 19:000 – 1Full Time
PSV Eindhoven — UEFA Champions League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
PSV Eindhoven edge FC Porto 1-0 at the Estádio do Dragão
PSV Eindhoven won 1-0 away to FC Porto on matchday three of the Champions League league stage at the Estádio do Dragão, with a single second-half goal from Guus Til separating the sides after a goalless first 45 minutes. Daniel Siebert refereed.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Neither side found a way through before the interval, and the match stayed level until the 57th minute. Sven Mijnans supplied the pass and Til applied the finish to put PSV 1-0 ahead, the only goal of the evening.
Porto had the greater share of the attempts, with 18 shots to 14 for the visitors, and they also held 60 per cent of the possession to PSV's 40. They managed three shots on target to PSV's four, however, and could not find an equaliser. Two yellow cards went the way of the hosts; PSV were not booked.
Porto had lost 3-2 at Real Betis in their previous game and now turn to Primeira Liga action, away to GIL Vicente on Saturday 24 October. PSV, beaten 2-1 at ADO Den Haag last time out, host Feyenoord in the Eredivisie on Sunday 25 October.
Guus Til scored the winning goal in the 57th minute and was the top-rated performer on 8.2. Sven Mijnans, who set up the goal, and Sergiño Dest also rated highly at 7.7 and 7.81 respectively.
Porto held 60 per cent of the possession but could not turn it into a goal.
PSV Eindhoven won 1–0 away against FC Porto (half-time 0–0).
FC Porto met PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League (League Stage - 3). Kick-off was Tuesday, 20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Estádio do Dragão. Referee: Daniel Siebert.
Team pages: FC Porto · PSV Eindhoven · UEFA Champions League
Key moments
- 57' Goal: Guus Til (assist: Sven Mijnans) — 0–1 · Watch Guus Til's goal video (57')
Starting line-ups
FC Porto (4-3-3)
PSV Eindhoven (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave FC Porto 48%, the draw 26%, PSV Eindhoven 26%. It finished FC Porto 0–1 PSV Eindhoven.
Porto's strength edge, tempered by PSV's possession — We give FC Porto 48% mainly because our strength rating has them a shade stronger, 1823 to 1770, on top of the usual home advantage, though PSV's habit of controlling the ball pulls a little the other way. The draw sits at 26%, just under its usual 27% for a gap this size, as both sides' recent games average 3.5 goals, partly offset by PSV's control.
Why FC Porto at 48%?
FC Porto sit 52 points higher on our strength rating — 1823 to 1770. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.3% of 10,419 such games.
Why only 48%?
PSV Eindhoven hold 6 more possession points (58 to 52 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.8% across 5,508 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 17,062. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Out: Paul Wanner and Ricardo Pepi, important players, and Jerdy Schouten and Ruben van Bommel, rotation players. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. FC Porto on 6 days' rest, PSV Eindhoven on 3. Once class is accounted for, rest gaps stopped mattering — across 42,220 measured games no rest advantage repeated.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Champions League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from FC Porto 0–1 PSV Eindhoven. Explore more on the FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven team pages or the UEFA Champions League page.