AEK Athens vs Real Madrid — UEFA Champions League: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsReal MadridYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow5 clips- 12′AEK Athens, goal:1–0assist
- 32′Real Madrid, goal:1–1assist
- 34′AEK Athens, yellow card:Dissent
- Half-time1 – 1
- 53′AEK Athens, substitution:off
- 60′AEK Athens, substitution:off
- 60′AEK Athens, substitution:off
- 65′Real Madrid, yellow card:Foul
- 67′Real Madrid, substitution:off
- 67′Real Madrid, substitution:off
- 75′AEK Athens, goal:2–1assist
- 78′Real Madrid, goal:2–2assist
- 81′Real Madrid, substitution:off
- 81′Real Madrid, substitution:off
- 86′Real Madrid, substitution:off
- 88′AEK Athens, substitution:off
- 90+2′Real Madrid, goal:2–3assist
- 90+5′AEK Athens, red card:Abusive language
- Full-time2 – 3
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AEK Athens
Real Madrid
Match report
Valverde's stoppage-time goal gives Real Madrid 3-2 win at AEK Athens
Real Madrid came from behind twice to beat AEK Athens 3-2 at Allwyn Arena in the Champions League league stage on matchday four. Federico Valverde struck in the 90+2 minute, three minutes before the home side had Aboubakary Koita sent off, to complete a late turnaround.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
AEK took the lead in the 12th minute when Koita finished from Luka Jović's assist. Real Madrid levelled in the 32nd minute, Jude Bellingham scoring from Marc Cucurella's delivery, and the sides went in at 1-1 at the break.
Stavros Pilios restored AEK's advantage in the 75th minute from Koita's assist, but the lead lasted three minutes. Kylian Mbappé equalised in the 78th from Denzel Dumfries's pass, and Valverde then converted Brahim Díaz's assist at 90+2. Koita was shown a red card at 90+5, and AEK finished with ten men.
Real Madrid dominated the ball with 70% possession, which tells much of the story of the game, and they have now won seven games in a row. Madrid travel to Valencia in La Liga on Saturday, while AEK host Levadiakos in the Super League Greece on Sunday.
Bellingham, rated 8.2, scored the equaliser in the 32nd minute for Real Madrid. Mbappé, who also scored and shared the top rating, drew Madrid level again in the 78th.
Real Madrid had 24 shots to AEK's 9, eight of them on target against five for the home side.
Real Madrid won 3–2 away against AEK Athens (half-time 1–1).
AEK Athens met Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League (League Stage - 4). Kick-off was Wednesday, 4 November 2026, 17:45 UTC at Allwyn Arena. Referee: Maurizio Mariani.
Team pages: AEK Athens · Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League
Key moments
- 12' Goal: Aboubakary Koita (assist: Luka Jović) — 1–0 · Watch Aboubakary Koita's goal video (12')
- 32' Goal: Jude Bellingham (assist: Marc Cucurella) — 1–1 · Watch Jude Bellingham's goal video (32')
- 75' Goal: Stavros Pilios (assist: Aboubakary Koita) — 2–1 · Watch Stavros Pilios's goal video (75')
- 78' Goal: Kylian Mbappé (assist: Denzel Dumfries) — 2–2 · Watch Kylian Mbappé's goal video (78')
- 90+2' Goal: Federico Valverde (assist: Brahim Díaz) — 2–3 · Watch Federico Valverde's goal video (90+2')
- 90+5' Red card: Aboubakary Koita
Starting line-ups
AEK Athens (4-4-2)
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave AEK Athens 13%, the draw 14%, Real Madrid 73%. It finished AEK Athens 2–3 Real Madrid.
Real Madrid's big strength edge drives a one-sided forecast — We give Real Madrid 73% mainly because our strength rating has them 413 points higher, 1985 to 1572, which outweighs the usual home advantage AEK Athens start with. The draw sits at 14%, a little below the usual 16% for a gap this size, because both sides' own recent games average 3.6 goals.
Why Real Madrid at 73%?
Real Madrid sit 413 points higher on our strength rating — 1985 to 1572. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 6,318 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 12–14–74.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 73% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 14% and AEK Athens at 13%.
Why is the draw only 14%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 15.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.6 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,720. The goals environment takes 1.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
AEK Athens have averaged 6 percentage points more possession than Real Madrid in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Last five: AEK Athens W-L-L-W-L, Real Madrid W-W-W-W-W — Real Madrid are clearly the hotter side on recent results, and unbeaten in their last 6 on 90-minute results, all competitions (6 wins), a run going back to October 2026. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.0% of 2059 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3978 when clearly colder. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the AEK Athens vs Real Madrid final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Champions League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Aboubakary Koita's goal against Real Madrid (12').
- Watch Jude Bellingham's goal against AEK Athens (32').
- Watch Stavros Pilios's goal against Real Madrid (75').
- Watch Kylian Mbappé's goal against AEK Athens (78').
- Watch Federico Valverde's goal against AEK Athens (90+2').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from AEK Athens 2–3 Real Madrid. Explore more on the AEK Athens and Real Madrid team pages or the UEFA Champions League page.