Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras — Copa Do Brasil: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Vasco DA GamaPalmeirasVasco DA GamaPalmeirasMatch preview
Vasco DA Gama host Palmeiras in Copa Do Brasil semi-final
Vasco DA Gama, managed by Pedro Emanuel, welcome Palmeiras, led by Abel Ferreira, in the semi-finals of the Copa Do Brasil. The home side arrive having won two of their last five games and lost three, scoring seven goals and conceding nine across that spell.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Palmeiras come into the tie in far steadier shape. They have won four and drawn one of their last five, scoring 11 goals and conceding one, and have kept four clean sheets in that run. They are unbeaten in 14 games.
Both sides have faced Atletico Paranaense recently. Vasco won 3-1 away from home on 4 November, while Palmeiras won 2-0 at Atletico Paranaense on 17 October. Of Vasco's last five home games, three were won, one drawn and one lost, with 12 goals scored and seven conceded.
Across their last 5 meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 1, Palmeiras won 4, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Palmeiras 1–0 Vasco DA Gama on 1 November 2026. Vasco DA Gama's latest win in this sample was Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Palmeiras on 12 March 2026.
Palmeiras have won four of their last five and lost none, while Vasco DA Gama have lost three of their last five.
Of their last five away games, Palmeiras have drawn four, won one and kept five clean sheets without conceding a goal.
Vasco DA Gama meet Palmeiras in the Copa Do Brasil (Semi-finals). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 20:00 UTC at Estádio São Januário.
Team pages: Vasco DA Gama · Palmeiras · Copa Do Brasil
Sirius · Why these numbers
Vasco DA Gama 22% · Draw 27% · Palmeiras 51%
Palmeiras ahead on strength despite playing away — We give Palmeiras 51% mainly because our strength rating puts them 198 points higher, 1736 to 1538, which outweighs the usual home advantage Vasco DA Gama enjoy. The draw sits at 27%, starting from the usual rate for a gap this size and nudged up by 1.1 points because both sides' recent games average 2.4 goals.
Why Palmeiras at 51%?
Palmeiras sit 198 points higher on our strength rating — 1736 to 1538. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.5% of 7,223 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 22–26–52.
Why only 51%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 51% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and Vasco DA Gama at 22%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Vasco DA Gama win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The goals environment adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Palmeiras defend a one-goal first-leg lead away from home (Palmeiras 1–0 Vasco DA Gama) — the aggregate is what counts. Slim leads built at home have wobbled: one-goal leaders defending the second leg away won 27.5% of 834 vs 32.8% class-expected. Palmeiras won 5 of the last 6 meetings with Vasco DA Gama. The record is 5 wins for Palmeiras, 0 draws and 1 win for Vasco DA Gama. These were 5 Brasileirão Série A games and 1 Copa Do Brasil game played between 22 September 2024 and 1 November 2026. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Copa Do Brasil fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras team pages or the Copa Do Brasil page.