Atletico-MG vs Gremio — Copa Do Brasil: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Atletico-MGGremioAtletico-MGGremioMatch preview
Atletico-MG host Gremio in Copa Do Brasil semi-final at MRV Arena
Atletico-MG welcome Gremio to the MRV Arena for a Copa Do Brasil semi-final, with the home side arriving in poor form. They have lost their last four games, and across their last five they have won once, lost four and scored only three goals, failing to score in three of those matches.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Gremio come in with a more varied recent record under Renato Gaúcho: three wins and two defeats from their last five, with eight goals scored and seven conceded. They won 2-0 at home to Atletico Paranaense and beat Coritiba 1-0 away before losing 3-1 at Flamengo in their latest outing.
Eduardo Domínguez's side have been steadier at home than elsewhere. Of their last five home games, Atletico-MG have won three, drawn one and lost one, keeping two clean sheets. Gremio's last five away games read differently: one win, one draw and three defeats, with eight goals conceded.
Across their last 5 meetings, Atletico-MG won 1, Gremio won 4, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Gremio 2–0 Atletico-MG on 1 November 2026. Atletico-MG's latest win in this sample was Atletico-MG 3–0 Gremio on 16 August 2026.
Atletico-MG have won one of their last five and lost four, while Gremio have won three and lost two, including a 2-0 victory over Atletico-MG on 1 November.
Both sides have faced Flamengo, Cruzeiro and Coritiba recently, and Gremio lost 3-1 at Flamengo while Atletico-MG went down 3-2 there.
Atletico-MG meet Gremio in the Copa Do Brasil (Semi-finals). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 21:00 UTC at Arena MRV.
Team pages: Atletico-MG · Gremio · Copa Do Brasil
Sirius · Why these numbers
Atletico-MG 50% · Draw 28% · Gremio 22%
Home advantage gives Atletico-MG a slight edge — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, the usual home advantage puts Atletico-MG in front at 50%, helped by their tendency to control the ball. The draw sits at 28%, close to the usual rate for evenly matched sides, nudged up by typical scoring in both teams' recent games and slightly down by Atletico-MG's possession.
Why Atletico-MG in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1540 to 1520. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%). Atletico-MG hold 9 more possession points (54 to 45 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.5% of 5,647 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 50%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 28% and Gremio at 22%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Gremio win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
This is the deciding leg — the aggregate is what counts. The first leg finished Gremio 2–0 Atletico-MG. Two-leg ties bend incentives, and we've now measured them: one- and two-goal first-leg leads carried forward almost exactly as the class table predicts — no measurable edge either way, so 0 points and the aggregate does the talking. Gremio won 4 of the last 6 meetings with Atletico-MG. The record is 4 wins for Gremio, 0 draws and 2 wins for Atletico-MG. These were 5 Brasileirão Série A games and 1 Copa Do Brasil game played at both grounds between 9 October 2024 and 1 November 2026. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Atletico-MG vs Gremio, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Copa Do Brasil fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Atletico-MG and Gremio team pages or the Copa Do Brasil page.