Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama — Copa Do Brasil: stats, lineups & analysis
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- 22′Vasco DA Gama, yellow card:Foul
- 24′Palmeiras, goal:1–0assist
- 30′Vasco DA Gama, yellow card:Foul
- 37′Vasco DA Gama, yellow card:Foul
- 45+1′Palmeiras, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Vasco DA Gama, substitution:off
- 63′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- 65′Vasco DA Gama, substitution:off
- 65′Vasco DA Gama, substitution:off
- 67′Palmeiras, yellow card:Foul
- 71′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- 71′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- 76′Vasco DA Gama, substitution:off
- 77′Vasco DA Gama, red card:
- 81′Vasco DA Gama, substitution:off
- 85′Palmeiras, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
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Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
Match report
Palmeiras edge Vasco DA Gama 1-0 in Copa Do Brasil semi-final
Palmeiras beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 at Nubank Parque in the Copa Do Brasil semi-finals, Maurício's goal in the 24th minute proving enough to settle the contest. Marlon Freitas supplied the assist for the opener, and the home side held that advantage through the second half.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The goal arrived early in the match and came from a period of sustained Palmeiras pressure. The home side finished with 19 shots to 6, four of them on target to Vasco's one, and won 10 corners to 3. They also held 60 per cent of the possession, leaving Pedro Emanuel's side to defend for long spells.
Vasco's task became harder in the 77th minute when Alan Saldivia was sent off, leaving them down to ten men with the score still 1-0. Neither side scored after that point, and Palmeiras saw the game out to extend their unbeaten run to 13 games.
Palmeiras next host Remo in the Brasileirão Série A on Thursday, while Vasco DA Gama travel to Atletico Paranaense in the same competition on Wednesday.
Maurício scored the only goal of the match and was the top-rated performer on 7.94. Marlon Freitas, who set the goal up, followed on 7.7.
Palmeiras took 19 shots to Vasco DA Gama's 6, a measure of how one-sided the match was despite the narrow scoreline.
Palmeiras beat Vasco DA Gama 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Palmeiras met Vasco DA Gama in the Copa Do Brasil (Semi-finals). Kick-off was Sunday, 1 November 2026, 19:00 UTC at Nubank Parque. Referee: Anderson Daronco.
Team pages: Palmeiras · Vasco DA Gama · Copa Do Brasil
Key moments
- 24' Goal: Maurício (assist: Marlon Freitas) — 1–0
- 77' Red card: Alan Saldivia
Starting line-ups
Palmeiras (3-4-2-1)
Vasco DA Gama (4-1-4-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Palmeiras 71%, the draw 19%, Vasco DA Gama 10%. It finished Palmeiras 1–0 Vasco DA Gama.
Palmeiras clearly stronger on our rating — We give Palmeiras 71% mainly because they sit 206 points higher on our strength rating, 1726 to 1520, and they also get the usual home advantage. The draw starts at 17% for a gap this size and rises to 19% because both sides' own recent games average just 2.1 goals.
Why Palmeiras at 71%?
Palmeiras sit 206 points higher on our strength rating — 1726 to 1520. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.9% of 7,085 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 75–16–9.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 71% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 19% and Vasco DA Gama at 10%.
Why is the draw only 19%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.1 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 19,785. The goals environment adds 1.9 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Palmeiras are 206 rating points stronger, but this is a cup tie between sides from the same division — the kind heavy favorites have not put away at their league-day rate. Same-division cup favorites this heavy won 57.1% of 767 ties where the class table expected 58.9% — worst early in the season and, oddly, at home, where the usual cup home edge shrinks. Palmeiras have won their last 4 home meetings with Vasco DA Gama. Those matches were played between 27 August 2023 and 23 August 2026, across 4 Brasileirão Série A games. Latest home meeting: 23 August 2026 — Palmeiras 4–1 Vasco DA Gama. Before the winning run: 26 January 2021 — Palmeiras 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Across 5,398 historical matches following at least three consecutive home wins against the same opponent, hosts won 59.4%, compared with 58.0% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Copa Do Brasil fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Palmeiras 1–0 Vasco DA Gama. Explore more on the Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama team pages or the Copa Do Brasil page.