Lithuania vs 27.09.26 13:001 – 1Full Time
Azerbaijan — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Lithuania and Azerbaijan share the points in early Nations League goal rush
Lithuania and Azerbaijan drew 1-1 in a UEFA Nations League League D fixture, with both goals arriving inside the opening quarter of an hour. The result left Lithuania top of Group 2 on four points from two games, while Azerbaijan sit second having collected their first point from a single match played.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Armandas Kučys opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the ninth minute to give the hosts an early lead. Azerbaijan responded almost immediately, Mahir Emreli converting an assist from Tellur Mütəllimov five minutes later to level the score at 1-1, a scoreline that held from half-time through to the final whistle.
The match produced two goals in total and was tightly contested throughout, with Lithuania edging possession 51 to 49 percent but both sides managing nine shots apiece. Azerbaijan were sharper in front of goal, registering four shots on target to Lithuania's three, while also picking up two corners to the hosts' none. Discipline was uneven, too, with Azerbaijan shown three yellow cards compared with a single caution for Lithuania.
Mahir Emreli scored Azerbaijan's equaliser and finished with the highest rating of the match at 7.92, a display that underlined his side's quick response after falling behind.
Despite Lithuania holding a slender edge in possession, Azerbaijan produced more shots on target, four to three, reflecting their greater efficiency in the final third.
Lithuania and Azerbaijan drew 1–1 (half-time 1–1).
Lithuania met Azerbaijan in the UEFA Nations League (League D - 2). Kick-off was Sunday, 27 September 2026, 13:00 UTC at Dariaus ir Girėno stadionas. Referee: Menelaos Antoniou.
Team pages: Lithuania · Azerbaijan · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 9' Goal (penalty): Armandas Kučys — 1–0
- 14' Goal: Mahir Emreli (assist: Tellur Mütəllimov) — 1–1
Starting line-ups
Lithuania (3-4-3)
- 23 D. Bartkus
- 2 Artemijus Tutyškinas
- 3 Edgaras Utkus
- 18 Vilius Armalas
- 13 Justas Lasickas
- 15 Gvidas Gineitis
- 16 Lukas Michelbrink
- 21 Adrian Lickūnas
- 7 Artūr Dolžnikov
- 10 Armandas Kučys
- 14 Vykintas Slivka
Azerbaijan (5-4-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Lithuania 33%, the draw 27%, Azerbaijan 40%. It finished Lithuania 1–1 Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan's rating edge outweighs Lithuania's home ground — Azerbaijan are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Azerbaijan's 40%. The draw at 27% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Azerbaijan at 40%?
Azerbaijan sit 129 points higher on our strength rating — 1321 to 1450. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,715 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 33–24–43.
Why only 40%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 40% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and Lithuania at 33%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 25,150.
What did we measure but not count?
Lithuania have averaged 16 percentage points more possession than Azerbaijan in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Lithuania (9 fully-tracked matches with us) and Azerbaijan (6) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Lithuania vs Azerbaijan final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Lithuania 1–1 Azerbaijan. Explore more on the Lithuania and Azerbaijan team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.