Match report
Kourbelis strike gives Greece win over dominant Germany
Greece defeated Germany 1-0 in a UEFA Nations League League A fixture, moving to the top of Group 2 while Germany remained third. The only goal came seven minutes from the end of the game, and it proved enough to settle a contest in which the hosts had done much of the pressing without breaking through.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The first half finished goalless despite Germany's control of possession, and the deadlock held until the 74th minute, when Dimitrios Kourbelis put Greece ahead to make it 0-1. That strike stood as the only change to the scoreline, with Germany unable to find a response before the final whistle.
Germany dominated territory and chances, registering 16 shots to Greece's 8 and forcing five efforts on target compared with just one from the visitors, while also winning 8 corners to 2. Greece, however, made their limited opportunities count, with four yellow cards shown to the away side reflecting a defensive effort that ultimately held firm.
Konstantinos Mavropanos led the Greece performance with a rating of 7.72, anchoring a defence that restricted Germany despite being heavily outpossessed, while Kourbelis capped his display with the decisive goal.
Germany's 76% share of possession underlined their control for long spells, yet it was Greece who made the breakthrough that decided the match.
Greece won 1–0 away against Germany (half-time 0–0).
Germany met Greece in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 2). Kick-off was Sunday, 27 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at WWK Arena. Referee: Chris Kavanagh.
Team pages: Germany · Greece · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 74' Goal: Dimitrios Kourbelis — 0–1
Starting line-ups
Germany (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Germany 73%, the draw 14%, Greece 13%. It finished Germany 0–1 Greece.
Germany's rating gap decides it — Germany are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Germany's 73%. The draw at 14% is down from the usual 15.7% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why Germany at 73%?
Germany sit 232 points higher on our strength rating — 1938 to 1706. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.9% of 6,593 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 73–15–12.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 73% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 14% and Greece at 13%.
Why is the draw only 14%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 15.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.0% of 16,951. The goals environment takes 1.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Germany have averaged 10 percentage points more possession than Greece in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Germany are 1 game into a new manager (J. Klopp), appointed 3 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Germany vs Greece final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Germany 0–1 Greece. Explore more on the Germany and Greece team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.