Match report
Sweden overturn early scare to beat Poland at Strawberry Arena
Sweden beat Poland 3-1 at the Strawberry Arena in a UEFA Nations League League B fixture, moving to the top of their group. Benjamin Nygren put the hosts ahead in the eighth minute, finishing an assist from Victor Lindelöf, only for Sebastian Szymański to level for Poland just before the break after Nicola Zalewski's pass, making it 1-1 at half-time.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The second half turned decisively in Sweden's favour. Yasin Ayari restored the home lead in the 63rd minute, set up by Sebastian Nanasi, and nine minutes later Viktor Gyökeres added a third, converting a chance created by Patrik Wålemark to make it 3-1, a scoreline that held to the final whistle.
The four goals scored made for an entertaining contest, with Sweden's G. Potter seeing his side climb to six points from two matches while Poland, managed by J. Urban, remain on one point after this defeat. Poland had more of the ball in shots but Sweden made their possession count at key moments.
Yasin Ayari scored the goal that put Sweden back in front and earned a rating of 8.2, matching the mark posted by Poland's Sebastian Szymański, who found the net either side of half-time drama.
Despite having less of the ball, Poland actually out-shot Sweden 18 to 12 over the course of the match.
Sweden beat Poland 3–1 (half-time 1–1).
Sweden met Poland in the UEFA Nations League (League B - 2). Kick-off was Monday, 28 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Strawberry Arena. Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas.
Team pages: Sweden · Poland · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 8' Goal: Benjamin Nygren (assist: Victor Lindelöf) — 1–0 · Watch Benjamin Nygren's goal video (8')
- 43' Goal: Sebastian Szymański (assist: Nicola Zalewski) — 1–1 · Watch Sebastian Szymański's goal video (43')
- 63' Goal: Yasin Ayari (assist: Sebastian Nanasi) — 2–1 · Watch Yasin Ayari's goal video (63')
- 72' Goal: Viktor Gyökeres (assist: Patrik Wålemark) — 3–1 · Watch Viktor Gyökeres's goal video (72')
Starting line-ups
Sweden (4-4-2)
Poland (3-4-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Sweden 51%, the draw 22%, Poland 27%. It finished Sweden 3–1 Poland.
Level sides, Poland's hot finishing due to cool swings it Sweden's way — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Poland's hot finishing due to cool gives Sweden the lean. The draw at 22% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Sweden in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1729 to 1715. Sides this close won 46.1% of 13,619 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 26.8%). Poland scored +0.37 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 26.9% of 1,426 games, vs 27.7% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 51%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 22% and Poland at 27%.
Why is the draw only 22%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.0% of 16,960. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Sweden have gained 74 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 11,115 such games vs 40.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Sweden (13 fully-tracked matches with us) and Poland (14) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Sweden vs Poland final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Benjamin Nygren's goal against Poland (8').
- Watch Sebastian Szymański's goal against Sweden (43').
- Watch Yasin Ayari's goal against Poland (63').
- Watch Viktor Gyökeres's goal against Poland (72').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Sweden 3–1 Poland. Explore more on the Sweden and Poland team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.