Slovakia vs 29.09.26 18:452 – 1Full Time
Kazakhstan — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Hancko's late strike sinks Kazakhstan as Slovakia go top of Group 3
Slovakia beat Kazakhstan 2-1 at Kosicka futbalova arena in a UEFA Nations League League C fixture, with the sides level 1-1 at half-time before a late winner settled the contest. The result lifted Slovakia to the top of Group 3, while Kazakhstan remained third.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Leo Sauer opened the scoring for the hosts in the 26th minute, but Kazakhstan responded quickly through Ramazan Karimov, whose goal was set up by Z. Amir nine minutes later to make it 1-1. The scoreline held through the interval and deep into the second half.
Slovakia eventually broke the deadlock again in the 82nd minute when Dávid Hancko struck, assisted by Ondrej Duda, to make it 2-1 and secure the points. Slovakia dominated territorially throughout, finishing with 75 percent possession and 17 shots to Kazakhstan's three, underlining their control despite the narrow scoreline.
Hancko scored the decisive 82nd-minute goal and earned the highest rating on the pitch at 7.99, capping a display that turned the game in Slovakia's favour late on.
Slovakia's overwhelming 75 percent share of possession reflected how thoroughly they controlled proceedings despite needing a late goal to win it.
Slovakia beat Kazakhstan 2–1 (half-time 1–1).
Slovakia met Kazakhstan in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 2). Kick-off was Tuesday, 29 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Kosicka futbalova arena. Referee: Patrik Kolarić.
Team pages: Slovakia · Kazakhstan · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 26' Goal: Leo Sauer — 1–0 · Watch Leo Sauer's goal video (26')
- 35' Goal: Ramazan Karimov (assist: Z. Amir) — 1–1 · Watch Ramazan Karimov's goal video (35')
- 82' Goal: Dávid Hancko (assist: Ondrej Duda) — 2–1 · Watch Dávid Hancko's goal video (82')
Starting line-ups
Slovakia (4-3-3)
Kazakhstan (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Slovakia 73%, the draw 19%, Kazakhstan 8%. It finished Slovakia 2–1 Kazakhstan.
Slovakia's rating gap decides it — Slovakia are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Slovakia's 73%. The draw at 19% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Slovakia at 73%?
Slovakia sit 213 points higher on our strength rating — 1692 to 1479. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.9% of 6,595 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 76–17–7.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 73% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 19% and Kazakhstan at 8%.
Why is the draw only 19%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 28,108.
What did we measure but not count?
Slovakia have averaged 6 percentage points more possession than Kazakhstan in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Slovakia (12 fully-tracked matches with us) and Kazakhstan (9) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Slovakia vs Kazakhstan final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Leo Sauer's goal against Kazakhstan (26').
- Watch Ramazan Karimov's goal against Slovakia (35').
- Watch Dávid Hancko's goal against Kazakhstan (82').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Slovakia 2–1 Kazakhstan. Explore more on the Slovakia and Kazakhstan team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.