Match report
Bulgaria and Estonia play out goalless draw in Nations League
Bulgaria and Estonia shared a goalless draw at Hristo Botev Stadium in a UEFA Nations League League C, Group 4 fixture, with neither side able to find a breakthrough across ninety minutes.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Bulgaria dominated territorially, holding 55 percent of possession and forcing 17 shots to Estonia's 6, yet only two of those efforts tested the goalkeeper. Estonia, managed by J. Henn, offered little going forward but stayed compact and organised in front of their own goal, restricting the hosts to half-chances despite the disparity in attempts.
The match was littered with stoppages, with Estonia committing 26 fouls compared to Bulgaria's 9, and three yellow cards shown to the home side against two for the visitors. Corners were shared evenly at six apiece, reflecting a contest short on clear-cut opportunities. The draw leaves Bulgaria fourth in the group on one point from two matches, with Estonia third on two.
Petko Panayotov was Bulgaria's top-rated performer with a 7.08 rating, while Karl Hein impressed for Estonia in goal, earning a 7.02 mark despite his side's lack of attacking output.
Bulgaria's 17 shots to Estonia's 6 underlined their territorial dominance, even if it failed to produce a goal.
Bulgaria and Estonia drew 0–0 (half-time 0–0).
Bulgaria met Estonia in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 2). Kick-off was Tuesday, 29 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Hristo Botev Stadium. Referee: Goga Kikacheishvili.
Team pages: Bulgaria · Estonia · UEFA Nations League
Starting line-ups
Bulgaria (4-3-3)
Estonia (5-3-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Bulgaria 49%, the draw 25%, Estonia 26%. It finished Bulgaria 0–0 Estonia.
A slight rating edge to Bulgaria, little else — Bulgaria are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and that is most of Bulgaria's 49%. The draw at 25% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Bulgaria at 49%?
Bulgaria sit 71 points higher on our strength rating — 1429 to 1358. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.2% of 10,312 such games.
Why only 49%?
Estonia hold 9 more possession points (40 to 31 in recent games) across a 71-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.5% of 8,533 such games where the class table expected 40.7%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.0% of 16,964. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Bulgaria (7 fully-tracked matches with us) and Estonia (9) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Bulgaria vs Estonia final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Bulgaria 0–0 Estonia. Explore more on the Bulgaria and Estonia team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.