Slovenia vs 29.09.26 18:452 – 0Full Time
FYR Macedonia — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Slovenia see off FYR Macedonia to move up in League B
Slovenia beat FYR Macedonia 2-0 at the Stožice Stadium in a UEFA Nations League League B match, with the sides level at 0-0 at half-time. The result lifted Slovenia to second in the group, while FYR Macedonia remained without a win.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The breakthrough came in the second half when Sandi Lovrić put Slovenia ahead in the 55th minute, finishing off an assist from Tjaš Begić. Slovenia doubled their lead through Aljoša Matko in the 82nd minute, teed up by Danijel Šturm, sealing the 2-0 win.
Slovenia were the busier side throughout, edging possession and creating far more chances than their opponents, while FYR Macedonia struggled to test the home defence with any consistency.
Sandi Lovrić scored the opening goal and finished with a match rating of 7.96, the highest of any player on the pitch.
Slovenia had 16 shots to FYR Macedonia's 10, underlining their control of the match.
Slovenia beat FYR Macedonia 2–0 (half-time 0–0).
Slovenia met FYR Macedonia in the UEFA Nations League (League B - 2). Kick-off was Tuesday, 29 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stožice Stadium. Referee: Andrea Colombo.
Team pages: Slovenia · FYR Macedonia · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 55' Goal: Sandi Lovrić (assist: Tjaš Begić) — 1–0 · Watch Sandi Lovrić's goal video (55')
- 82' Goal: Aljoša Matko (assist: Danijel Šturm) — 2–0 · Watch Aljoša Matko's goal video (82')
Starting line-ups
Slovenia (5-4-1)
- 1 Jan Oblak (c)
- 13 Erik Janža
- 21 Vanja Drkušić
- 6 Jaka Bijol
- 23 David Brekalo
- 2 Žan Karničnik
- 15 Danijel Šturm
- 22 Adam Čerin
- 8 Sandi Lovrić
- 7 Tjaš Begić
- 18 Žan Vipotnik
FYR Macedonia (4-2-3-1)
- 23 Stole Dimitrievski (c)
- 3 D. Alomerovic
- 13 Anes Meljichi
- 14 Mario Mladenovski
- 4 Andrej Stojchevski
- 21 Jani Atanasov
- 16 Matej Gashtarov
- 7 Eljif Elmas
- 15 Agon Elezi
- 20 Dimitar Mitrovski
- 17 Azer Omeragikj
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Slovenia 57%, the draw 28%, FYR Macedonia 15%. It finished Slovenia 2–0 FYR Macedonia.
Slovenia's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Slovenia are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover on top gives Slovenia a clear lead. The draw at 28% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Slovenia at 57%?
Slovenia sit 128 points higher on our strength rating — 1693 to 1565. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.8% of 13,275 such games. Slovenia sit -0.32 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.4% of 2,495 such games where the class table expected 35.8%. The 300 most similar past games finished 59–26–15.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and FYR Macedonia at 15%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the FYR Macedonia win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.1 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,509. The goals environment adds 3.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
FYR Macedonia have averaged 5 percentage points more possession than Slovenia in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Slovenia are 1 game into a new manager (B. Cesar), appointed 28 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Sandi Lovrić's goal against FYR Macedonia (55').
- Watch Aljoša Matko's goal against FYR Macedonia (82').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Slovenia 2–0 FYR Macedonia. Explore more on the Slovenia and FYR Macedonia team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.