Match report
Walta's double sends Finland past ten-man Albania in Helsinki
Finland came from behind to beat Albania 2-1 in a UEFA Nations League League C group fixture at Helsinki Olympic Stadium, moving top of the group with the win. Rey Manaj's early strike put Albania ahead before Leo Walta's second-half goal settled the contest after the sides had been level at the break.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Albania made the brighter start, with Manaj converting a Kristjan Asllani assist after just four minutes to put the visitors in front. Their afternoon turned on the 22nd minute when Etrit Berisha was sent off, reducing Albania to ten men. Finland capitalised through Walta, who equalised in the 26th minute to make it 1-1 at half-time.
Walta struck again in the 71st minute to complete his double and give Finland the lead for good, with the hosts closing out the remaining minutes to secure the three points. Finland finished with 60 percent of possession despite being outshot 14 to 11, while Albania, even with a numerical disadvantage for over an hour, posed a threat with five shots on target to Finland's three.
Leo Walta scored both of Finland's goals, turning the game with an equaliser either side of half-time and a decisive second-half strike, earning the match's highest rating of 8.9.
Finland dominated territory with 60 percent of possession despite playing a numerically superior side against ten men for much of the second half.
Finland beat Albania 2–1 (half-time 1–1).
Finland met Albania in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 3). Kick-off was Saturday, 3 October 2026, 13:00 UTC at Helsinki Olympic Stadium. Referee: Robert Hennessy.
Team pages: Finland · Albania · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 4' Goal: Rey Manaj (assist: Kristjan Asllani) — 0–1 · Watch Rey Manaj's goal video (4')
- 22' Red card: Etrit Berisha
- 26' Goal: Leo Walta — 1–1 · Watch Leo Walta's goal video (26')
- 71' Goal: Leo Walta — 2–1 · Watch Leo Walta's goal video (71')
Starting line-ups
Finland (4-3-3)
Albania (3-4-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Finland 34%, the draw 31%, Albania 35%. It finished Finland 2–1 Albania.
Anyone's game — Albania are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball is not enough to separate them. The draw at 31% is up from the usual 29.2% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why Albania at 35%?
Albania sit 56 points higher on our strength rating — 1585 to 1641. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.4% of 10,293 such games. Albania hold 6 more possession points (58 to 52 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.9% across 5,457 games, from 43.9% when styles were level. The 300 most similar past games finished 36–31–33.
Why only 35%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 35% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 31% and Finland at 34%.
Why the draw at 31%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,245. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw. The control factor adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Albania are 2 games into a new manager (R. Maran), appointed 32 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. Finland (10 fully-tracked matches with us) and Albania (14) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Finland vs Albania final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Rey Manaj's goal against Finland (4').
- Watch Leo Walta's goal against Albania (26').
- Watch Leo Walta's goal against Albania (71').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Finland 2–1 Albania. Explore more on the Finland and Albania team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.