Estonia vs 03.10.26 16:001 – 0Full Time
Luxembourg — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Early Peetson strike enough for Estonia to edge past Luxembourg
Estonia secured a 1-0 win over Luxembourg at the A. Le Coq Arena in a UEFA Nations League League C Group 4 fixture, with the game's only goal settling the contest inside the opening five minutes. The result lifted Estonia to second in the group standings on five points from three matches.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Rasmus Peetson put the home side ahead in the 5th minute, converting to make it 1-0, and that scoreline held firm through to half-time. Luxembourg could not find a response across the remaining period, and Estonia held on to see out the single-goal advantage to the final whistle.
Estonia dominated territorially despite finishing with less of the ball, managing nine shots on target from fourteen attempts compared to Luxembourg's two from eight, underlining how much more direct and incisive the home side were in front of goal. Luxembourg's goalkeeper Anthony Moris was called upon repeatedly to keep his side within touching distance.
Peetson's fifth-minute finish proved decisive and earned him a rating of 8.1, making him the most influential outfield performer of the match. Moris, despite conceding, was rated even higher at 8.8 for his efforts between the posts for Luxembourg.
Estonia's nine shots on target to Luxembourg's two reflected a marked difference in attacking efficiency despite the away side holding more possession at 54 percent.
Estonia beat Luxembourg 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Estonia met Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 3). Kick-off was Saturday, 3 October 2026, 16:00 UTC at A. Le Coq Arena. Referee: Pawel Raczkowski.
Team pages: Estonia · Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 5' Goal: Rasmus Peetson — 1–0 · Watch Rasmus Peetson's goal video (5')
Starting line-ups
Estonia (5-3-2)
Luxembourg (4-1-4-1)
- 1 Anthony Moris (c)
- 13 Dirk Carlson
- 5 Vahid Selimović
- 3 Enes Mahmutović
- 4 Florian Bohnert
- 6 Joao de Sousa Moreira Cruz
- 7 Aiman Dardari
- 8 E. Duarte
- 11 Vincent Thill
- 15 Omar Natami
- 9 J. Videira
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Estonia 28%, the draw 27%, Luxembourg 45%. It finished Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg.
Luxembourg's rating edge outweighs Estonia's home ground — Luxembourg are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball plus their cold finishing due to recover on top give Luxembourg the lean. The draw at 27% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Luxembourg at 45%?
Luxembourg sit 87 points higher on our strength rating — 1365 to 1452. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 40.0% of 13,732 such games. Luxembourg hold 5 more possession points (46 to 41 in recent games) across a 87-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.5% of 8,540 such games where the class table expected 40.6%. Luxembourg sit -0.39 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.4% of 2,498 such games where the class table expected 35.8%. The 300 most similar past games finished 35–27–38.
Why only 45%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 45% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and Estonia at 28%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,087.
What did we measure but not count?
Estonia (10 fully-tracked matches with us) and Luxembourg (8) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Estonia vs Luxembourg final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg. Explore more on the Estonia and Luxembourg team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.