Match report
Óskarsson double sends Iceland top as Bulgaria swept aside
Iceland beat Bulgaria 3-0 at Ice Rink Laugardalur in a UEFA Nations League League C Group 4 fixture, moving top of the standings. The hosts led at half-time and never looked troubled as they added two further goals after the break to complete a comfortable win on matchday three.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Orri Óskarsson put Iceland ahead in the 37th minute, converting after an assist from Hákon Haraldsson to make it 1-0 at the interval. Óskarsson struck again on the hour mark, this time teed up by Mikael Anderson, to double the advantage. The scoring was completed deep into stoppage time when Mikael Ellertsson finished off a move started by Óskarsson himself, making it 3-0 in the 90th minute.
Iceland shaded possession at 51 percent and were sharper in front of goal, landing six of their ten shots on target compared to three from ten for Bulgaria. The hosts also dominated set-piece situations, winning nine corners to just one, though they picked up two yellow cards to Bulgaria's four across a fairly niggly contest.
Orri Óskarsson scored twice and set up a third for Ellertsson, finishing with a rating of 9.31 to lead all performers on the pitch.
Iceland's dominance from set pieces was clear in the corner count, winning nine to Bulgaria's solitary one.
Iceland beat Bulgaria 3–0 (half-time 1–0).
Iceland met Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 3). Kick-off was Saturday, 3 October 2026, 16:00 UTC at Ice Rink Laugardalur. Referee: Balazs Berke.
Team pages: Iceland · Bulgaria · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 37' Goal: Orri Óskarsson (assist: Hákon Haraldsson) — 1–0 · Watch Orri Óskarsson's goal video (37')
- 60' Goal: Orri Óskarsson (assist: Mikael Anderson) — 2–0 · Watch Orri Óskarsson's goal video (60')
- 90' Goal: Mikael Ellertsson (assist: Orri Óskarsson) — 3–0 · Watch Mikael Ellertsson's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
Iceland (4-4-1-1)
Bulgaria (4-4-1-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Iceland 58%, the draw 23%, Bulgaria 19%. It finished Iceland 3–0 Bulgaria.
Iceland's rating edge carries it — Iceland are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Iceland's 58%. The draw at 23% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Iceland at 58%?
Iceland sit 131 points higher on our strength rating — 1553 to 1421. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 13,290 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 54–27–19.
Why only 58%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 58% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and Bulgaria at 19%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,793. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Iceland have averaged 18 percentage points more possession than Bulgaria in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Iceland scored +0.78 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,827 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.3% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Iceland vs Bulgaria final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Orri Óskarsson's goal against Bulgaria (37').
- Watch Orri Óskarsson's goal against Bulgaria (60').
- Watch Mikael Ellertsson's goal against Bulgaria (90').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Iceland 3–0 Bulgaria. Explore more on the Iceland and Bulgaria team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.