Sunderland vs Brentford — League Cup: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsSunderland AFCYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow5 clips- 26′Sunderland, goal:1–0
- 29′Sunderland, goal:2–0assist
- 39′Sunderland, goal:3–0assist
- 42′Brentford, goal:3–1assist
- Half-time3 – 1
- 46′Sunderland, substitution:off
- 59′Brentford, substitution:off
- 59′Brentford, substitution:off
- 59′Brentford, substitution:off
- 60′Sunderland, substitution:off
- 60′Sunderland, substitution:off
- 71′Brentford, substitution:off
- 71′Brentford, substitution:off
- 74′Brentford, yellow card:Foul
- 80′Sunderland, substitution:off
- 83′Brentford, yellow card:Foul
- 85′Brentford, yellow card:Foul
- 89′Sunderland, yellow card:Foul
- 90+4′Brentford, goal:3–2assist
- 90+4′Sunderland, substitution:off
- Full-time3 – 2
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Key Stats
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Sunderland
Brentford
Match report
Sunderland hold off Brentford fightback to win League Cup tie 3-2
Sunderland won a five-goal League Cup Round of 16 tie 3-2 against Brentford at the Stadium of Light, building a three-goal lead before the break and then surviving a stoppage-time scare. The result ended a run of three games without a win for the home side.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Chemsdine Talbi opened the scoring in the 26th minute, and Timur Tuterov doubled the lead three minutes later from a Jocelin Ta Bi assist. Ta Bi set up Malick Fofana for a third in the 39th minute, leaving Sunderland 3-0 up with the contest seemingly settled.
Brentford pulled one back in the 42nd minute, Callum Wilson scoring from a Vitaly Janelt assist, and it was 3-1 at the interval. The second half brought no further goals until Igor Thiago netted from a Mathias Jensen assist in the 90+4 minute, but it was too late to alter the outcome.
Sunderland next travel to Coventry in the Premier League on Saturday 31 October, the same day Brentford host Nottingham Forest in the league.
Jocelin Ta Bi laid on two of Sunderland's three goals, for Tuterov and Fofana, and earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch at 8.29.
Brentford had 67% of the possession yet still left the Stadium of Light beaten.
Sunderland beat Brentford 3–2 (half-time 3–1).
Sunderland met Brentford in the League Cup (Round of 16). Kick-off was Wednesday, 28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC at Stadium of Light. Referee: Gavin Ward.
Team pages: Sunderland · Brentford · League Cup
Key moments
- 26' Goal: Chemsdine Talbi — 1–0 · Watch Chemsdine Talbi's goal video (26')
- 29' Goal: Timur Tuterov (assist: Jocelin Ta Bi) — 2–0 · Watch Timur Tuterov's goal video (29')
- 39' Goal: Malick Fofana (assist: Jocelin Ta Bi) — 3–0 · Watch Malick Fofana's goal video (39')
- 42' Goal: Callum Wilson (assist: Vitaly Janelt) — 3–1 · Watch Callum Wilson's goal video (42')
- 90+4' Goal: Igor Thiago (assist: Mathias Jensen) — 3–2 · Watch Igor Thiago's goal video (90+4')
Starting line-ups
Sunderland (4-2-3-1)
Brentford (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Sunderland 36%, the draw 26%, Brentford 38%. It finished Sunderland 3–2 Brentford.
Brentford's stronger rating gives them a slight edge — We give Brentford 38% because our strength rating has them 129 points higher, though Sunderland's cold finishing streak pulls the other way, since streaks like that have tended to bounce back. The draw sits at 26%, a little below the usual 28% for a gap this size, trimmed by that finishing streak and both sides' recent games averaging 2.8 goals.
Why Brentford at 38%?
Brentford sit 129 points higher on our strength rating — 1804 to 1674. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,824 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 29–28–43.
Why only 38%?
Sunderland sit -0.85 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.4% of 2,958 such games where the class table expected 35.6%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,217. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Brentford scored +0.34 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,181 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.1% vs 42.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Brentford are 129 rating points stronger, but this is a cup tie between sides from the same division — the kind heavy favorites have not put away at their league-day rate. Same-division cup favorites this heavy won 57.2% of 761 ties where the class table expected 58.9% — worst early in the season and, oddly, at home, where the usual cup home edge shrinks. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Sunderland vs Brentford final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this League Cup fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Chemsdine Talbi's goal against Brentford (26').
- Watch Timur Tuterov's goal against Brentford (29').
- Watch Malick Fofana's goal against Brentford (39').
- Watch Callum Wilson's goal against Sunderland (42').
- Watch Igor Thiago's goal against Sunderland (90+4').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Sunderland 3–2 Brentford. Explore more on the Sunderland and Brentford team pages or the League Cup page.