Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal — League Cup: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsEFLYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow3 clips- 21′Fleetwood Town, goal:1–0assist
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Arsenal, substitution:off
- 46′Arsenal, substitution:off
- 50′Arsenal, goal:1–1assist
- 54′Fleetwood Town, yellow card:Foul
- 66′Fleetwood Town, substitution:off
- 66′Fleetwood Town, substitution:off
- 66′Arsenal, substitution:off
- 74′Fleetwood Town, yellow card:Foul
- 74′Fleetwood Town, substitution:off
- 82′Arsenal, substitution:off
- 82′Arsenal, substitution:off
- 82′Fleetwood Town, substitution:off
- 85′Arsenal, red card:Violent conduct
- 86′Fleetwood Town, yellow card:Argument
- Full-time1 – 1
Fleetwood Town5
Arsenal3Lineups
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Match report
Fleetwood Town beat Arsenal on penalties after League Cup draw
Fleetwood Town beat Arsenal 5-3 on penalties after the sides finished 1-1 in their League Cup round of 16 tie at Highbury Stadium. Matthew Lawlor's side advanced despite being heavily outshot, with Arsenal's pressure over the 90 minutes bringing only one goal.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Aaron Loupalo-Bi put the hosts ahead in the 21st minute, converting a chance created by Harrison Neal, and Fleetwood took that lead into the interval. Arsenal responded after the break, and Viktor Gyökeres levelled in the 50th minute from Ceadach O'Neill's assist.
The visitors dominated the attempts, with 26 shots to three and seven on target to two, yet could not find a winner. Their task became harder in the 85th minute when Max Dowman was sent off, leaving them with ten men for the closing stages. Fleetwood held on and prevailed in the shootout.
Fleetwood next host Rochdale in the FA Cup on Saturday 7 November, while Arsenal travel to Liverpool in the Premier League on Sunday 1 November.
Aaron Loupalo-Bi scored Fleetwood's goal and earned a rating of 7.92, the highest of any player in the match. Gyökeres, who equalised for Arsenal, followed on 7.88.
Arsenal had 26 shots to Fleetwood's three, a gap that the single goal each side scored did not reflect.
Fleetwood Town and Arsenal drew 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Fleetwood Town won the penalty shootout 5–3.
Fleetwood Town met Arsenal in the League Cup (Round of 16). Kick-off was Tuesday, 27 October 2026, 20:00 UTC at Highbury Stadium. Referee: Michael Salisbury.
Team pages: Fleetwood Town · Arsenal · League Cup
Key moments
- 21' Goal: Aaron Loupalo-Bi (assist: Harrison Neal) — 1–0 · Watch Aaron Loupalo-Bi's goal video (21')
- 50' Goal: Viktor Gyökeres (assist: Ceadach O’Neill) — 1–1 · Watch Viktor Gyökeres's goal video (50')
- 85' Red card: Max Dowman
Starting line-ups
Fleetwood Town (3-1-4-2)
Arsenal (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Fleetwood Town 7%, the draw 13%, Arsenal 80%. It finished Fleetwood Town 1–1 Arsenal.
Arsenal's huge strength gap makes this one-sided — Arsenal sit 703 points higher on our strength rating, 2044 to 1342, which outweighs the usual home advantage Fleetwood Town start with, so we give Arsenal 80%. The draw sits at 13%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, nudged up slightly because both teams' own recent games average 2.6 goals.
Why Arsenal at 80%?
Arsenal sit 703 points higher on our strength rating — 2044 to 1342. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 6,287 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 4–11–85.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 80% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 13% and Fleetwood Town at 7%.
Why is the draw only 13%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 12.9%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,329.
What did we measure but not count?
Arsenal have averaged 19 percentage points more possession than Fleetwood Town in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. A cup tie across divisions: Arsenal carry a 703-point rating edge over Fleetwood Town, whose league sits outside the divisions we rate. We already have 26 rated matches for Fleetwood Town.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this League Cup fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Aaron Loupalo-Bi's goal against Arsenal (21').
- Watch Viktor Gyökeres's goal against Fleetwood Town (50').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Fleetwood Town 1–1 Arsenal. Explore more on the Fleetwood Town and Arsenal team pages or the League Cup page.