Fazendense vs Estrela — Taça de Portugal: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 64′Estrela, substitution:off
- 64′Estrela, substitution:off
- 65′Estrela, goal:0–1
- 70′Fazendense, substitution:D. A. Bacalhau C. F. T.offM. Pires
- 77′Estrela, substitution:off
- 77′Estrela, substitution:off
- 78′Estrela, yellow card:
- 79′Fazendense, goal:1–1
- 85′Estrela, goal:1–2
- 87′Estrela, substitution:off
- 87′Fazendense, substitution:G. BarbosaoffT. Gomez
- 87′Fazendense, substitution:D. CostaoffA. Fernandes
- 88′Fazendense, yellow card:
- Full-time1 – 2
Lineups
Starting lineups
Formation or player positions unavailable or inconsistent.
Fazendense
Formation unavailable
- 7T. Gomez
- 8R. Dias
- 11A. Fernandes
- 16J. Moreira
- 20L. Moura
- 21J. Tomas
- 87S. Coutinho
- 85Ivanilson Magalhães⚽ 1
- 1A. Cotovio
- 3J. Lopes
- 6M. Pires
Estrela
Formation unavailable
Key Stats
Top Performers
Goals
Match report
Moustier double sends Estrela past Fazendense in Taça de Portugal
Estrela came from level pegging to beat Fazendense 2-1 in the Round of 64 of the Taça de Portugal, with Tom Moustier scoring twice in the second half. The tie was goalless at half-time and stayed that way until the 65th minute.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Moustier broke the deadlock on 65 minutes to put the visitors 1-0 up. Fazendense answered 14 minutes later, Ivanilson Magalhães scoring in the 79th minute to make it 1-1 and leave the tie finely balanced with 11 minutes of normal time remaining.
The winner arrived in the 85th minute, Moustier scoring his second of the afternoon to make it 2-1 to Estrela. Fazendense could not find a second equaliser in the closing stages. The result ended a run of three games without a win for Estrela, who had lost their previous two games against Academico Viseu and Arouca.
Fazendense had gone into the tie after winning their two most recent games, 1-0 against Mocarriense and 6-1 against Ginásio Figueirense, both at home.
Tom Moustier scored both of Estrela's goals, in the 65th and 85th minutes, the second of them the winner.
Estrela won 2–1 away against Fazendense (half-time 0–0).
Fazendense met Estrela in the Taça de Portugal (Round of 64). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 14:30 UTC at Complexo Desportivo Prof. Jose Sousa Gomes - Campo 2.
Team pages: Fazendense · Estrela · Taça de Portugal
Key moments
- 65' Goal: Tom Moustier — 0–1
- 79' Goal: Ivanilson Magalhães — 1–1
- 85' Goal: Tom Moustier — 1–2
Starting line-ups
Fazendense
- 7 T. Gomez
- 8 R. Dias
- 11 A. Fernandes
- 16 J. Moreira
- 20 L. Moura
- 21 J. Tomas
- 87 S. Coutinho
- 85 Ivanilson Magalhães
- 1 A. Cotovio
- 3 J. Lopes
- 6 M. Pires
Estrela
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Fazendense 32%, the draw 28%, Estrela 40%. It finished Fazendense 1–2 Estrela.
Estrela's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — Estrela sit 107 points higher on our strength rating, 1425 to 1317, which is enough to put them in front at 40% even with Fazendense getting the usual home advantage. The draw sits at 28%, close to the usual draw rate of 27.6% for a strength gap this size, with nothing listed moving it.
Why Estrela at 40%?
Estrela sit 107 points higher on our strength rating — 1425 to 1317. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,846 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 31–26–43.
Why only 40%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 40% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and Fazendense at 32%.
Why the draw at 28%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. Not enough recent scoring data to set the goals dial — the draw stays at the class table's rate.
What did we measure but not count?
Estrela scored +0.51 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,843 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Fazendense arrive with 3 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Estrela bring a 124-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Fazendense vs Estrela final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Taça de Portugal fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Fazendense and Estrela team pages or the Taça de Portugal page.