NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split — HNL: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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NK OsijekHNK Hajduk SplitNK OsijekHNK Hajduk SplitMatch preview
NK Osijek host HNL leaders HNK Hajduk Split at Opus Arena
Matchday 13 of the HNL brings league leaders HNK Hajduk Split to Opus Arena, where third-placed NK Osijek will look to close a six-point gap at the top. Hajduk have 26 points from 12 games, with Osijek on 20 from the same number of matches, two places below them.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Osijek come into the contest with mixed recent results: one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five, scoring five goals and conceding six. That win was a 3-1 success away at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb on 1 November, which followed a 1-0 home defeat to Rudes a week earlier.
Hajduk have won three of their last five, including a 5-0 home victory over HNK Gorica on 31 October. They lost 1-0 away to Lincoln Red Imps FC on 5 November, failing to score for the only time in that run, and have kept three clean sheets across the five games.
Across their last 5 meetings, NK Osijek won 1, HNK Hajduk Split won 4, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was HNK Hajduk Split 4–0 NK Osijek on 23 August 2026. NK Osijek's latest win in this sample was HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 NK Osijek on 21 April 2026.
Hajduk Split have won three of their last five with nine goals scored, while Osijek have won one of theirs and drawn two.
Both sides have faced HNK Gorica, Istra 1961 and NK Varazdin recently, with Osijek drawing 1-1 at home to Gorica and Hajduk beating them 5-0 at home.
NK Osijek meet HNK Hajduk Split in the HNL (Regular Season - 13). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 14:00 UTC at Opus Arena.
Team pages: NK Osijek · HNK Hajduk Split · HNL
Sirius · Why these numbers
NK Osijek 24% · Draw 25% · HNK Hajduk Split 51%
Hajduk Split's strength gap shapes a slight lean — We give Hajduk Split 51% because our strength rating has them 173 points higher, 1613 to 1440, which outweighs the usual home advantage NK Osijek start with. The draw sits at 25%, close to the usual rate for a strength gap this size, nudged down slightly because both teams' own recent games average 2.8 goals.
Why HNK Hajduk Split at 51%?
HNK Hajduk Split sit 173 points higher on our strength rating — 1613 to 1440. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.5% of 7,223 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 27–27–46.
Why only 51%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 51% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 25% and NK Osijek at 24%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.3%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of the last 6 meetings with NK Osijek. The record is 4 wins for HNK Hajduk Split, 0 draws and 2 wins for NK Osijek. These were 6 HNL games played at both grounds between 27 April 2025 and 23 August 2026. Latest meeting: 23 August 2026 — HNK Hajduk Split 4–0 NK Osijek. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%. Last five: NK Osijek D-L-D-L-W, HNK Hajduk Split W-W-D-W-L — HNK Hajduk Split are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.0% of 2060 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3981 when clearly colder. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this HNL fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the NK Osijek and HNK Hajduk Split team pages or the HNL page.