NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes — HNL: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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NK Lokomotiva ZagrebRudesNK Lokomotiva ZagrebRudesMatch preview
Lokomotiva Zagreb host Rudes with one place and two points between them
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb welcome Rudes to Stadion Kranjčevićeva on HNL Matchday 13 with the two sides separated by a single place in the table. Rudes are eighth on 13 points from 12 games, while Lokomotiva sit ninth on 11 points from the same number of matches.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Nikica Jelavić's side arrive on the back of a 3-1 home defeat to NK Osijek on 1 November, their third loss in five games. Over that spell they beat Istra 1961 2-0 and drew 0-0 at HNK Gorica, but also lost 1-0 at home to NK Varazdin.
Alen Peternac's Rudes have won three of their last five, including a 1-0 home win over Dinamo Zagreb on 31 October and a 1-0 success at NK Osijek a week earlier. Their away record is less settled: in their last five away games they have won two and lost three, conceding ten goals.
Across their last 5 meetings, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 2, Rudes won 1, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Rudes 4–1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb on 21 August 2026. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's latest win in this sample was NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–0 Rudes on 9 March 2024.
Rudes have won three of their last five games and lost one, while Lokomotiva have won one and lost three, the latest of those defeats a 3-1 home loss to NK Osijek.
Both sides have faced NK Osijek recently, Rudes winning 1-0 there on 25 October and Lokomotiva losing 3-1 at home to them on 1 November.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb meet Rudes in the HNL (Regular Season - 13). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 17:00 UTC at Stadion Maksimir. Referee: A. Terzić.
Team pages: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · Rudes · HNL
Sirius · Why these numbers
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 70% · Draw 18% · Rudes 12%
Lokomotiva's strength gap makes this one-sided — We give NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 70% mainly because our strength rating has them 169 points higher, 1401 to 1232, and their recent finishing below their chances adds a little, as cold streaks like this have tended to bounce back. The draw sits at 18%, just under the usual 20% for a gap this size, nudged down by that finishing streak and a typical scoring environment.
Why NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 70%?
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sit 169 points higher on our strength rating — 1401 to 1232. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 7,097 such games. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sit -0.35 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%. The 300 most similar past games finished 58–25–17.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 70% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 18% and Rudes at 12%.
Why is the draw only 18%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have averaged 7 percentage points more possession than Rudes in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Rudes scored +0.39 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this HNL fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Rudes team pages or the HNL page.