Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka — HNL: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Istra 1961HNK RijekaIstra 1961HNK RijekaMatch preview
Istra 1961 host HNK Rijeka with one place and two points between them
Matchday 13 of the HNL brings HNK Rijeka to Stadion Aldo Drosina to face Istra 1961, with the two sides adjacent in the table. Rijeka are fifth on 18 points from 11 games, while Istra 1961 sit sixth on 16 points from 12, so the visitors are one place and two points ahead.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Istra 1961, managed by Javier Cabello, arrive having won away at NK Slaven Belupo 2-0 last time out. Over their last five they have won two, drawn one and lost two, scoring seven goals and conceding six. Two of those five ended without a goal for them.
Matjaž Kek's Rijeka were held to a 1-1 home draw by NK Varazdin in their latest game. Across their last five they have won two, drawn one and lost two, scoring eight and conceding eight, and they have kept one clean sheet in that spell.
Across their last 5 meetings, Istra 1961 won 1, HNK Rijeka won 2, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was HNK Rijeka 3–2 Istra 1961 on 23 August 2026. Istra 1961's latest win in this sample was HNK Rijeka 0–2 Istra 1961 on 15 March 2026.
Both sides have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five, with Istra 1961 scoring seven and conceding six against Rijeka's eight scored and eight conceded.
Both sides have faced NK Slaven Belupo recently: Istra 1961 won 2-0 there in their last game, while Rijeka lost 4-1 at the same opponent on 11 October.
Istra 1961 meet HNK Rijeka in the HNL (Regular Season - 13). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 17:00 UTC at Stadion Aldo Drosina.
Team pages: Istra 1961 · HNK Rijeka · HNL
Sirius · Why these numbers
Istra 1961 35% · Draw 28% · HNK Rijeka 37%
Rijeka's stronger rating offset by Istra 1961's home ground — HNK Rijeka sit 53 points higher on our strength rating, and their extra possession adds a little more, but Istra 1961's usual home advantage pulls it back to 35% against 37%, too close to separate. The draw sits at 28%, starting from 29% for a gap this size, nudged down by high-scoring recent games and slightly up by Rijeka's control of the ball.
Why HNK Rijeka at 37%?
HNK Rijeka sit 53 points higher on our strength rating — 1520 to 1467. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,153 such games. HNK Rijeka hold 10 more possession points (57 to 47 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,966 games, from 44.0% when styles were level. The 300 most similar past games finished 39–28–33.
Why only 37%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 37% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and Istra 1961 at 35%.
Why the draw at 28%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this HNL fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka team pages or the HNL page.