HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo — HNL: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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HNK GoricaNK Slaven BelupoHNK GoricaNK Slaven BelupoMatch preview
HNK Gorica host NK Slaven Belupo with seventh and tenth separated by six points
HNK Gorica welcome NK Slaven Belupo to Stadion Radnik on Matchday 13 of the HNL, with the two clubs separated by three places in the table. Gorica sit tenth on 7 points from 12 games, while the visitors are seventh on 13, six points clear of their hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Gorica arrive after a 5-0 defeat away to HNK Hajduk Split on 31 October. Across their last five games they have won one, drawn two and lost two, scoring three goals and conceding eight, with two clean sheets and two games in which they failed to score.
Slaven Belupo, managed by Silvijo Čabraja, were beaten 2-0 at home by Istra 1961 last time out, a result that followed a 2-1 win away to NK Varazdin. Their five-game record reads two wins, one draw and two defeats, with nine goals scored and eleven conceded and no clean sheets.
Across their last 5 meetings, HNK Gorica won 1, NK Slaven Belupo won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was NK Slaven Belupo 2–0 HNK Gorica on 22 August 2026. HNK Gorica's latest win in this sample was HNK Gorica 2–1 NK Slaven Belupo on 21 September 2025.
Gorica have scored three goals in their last five games to Slaven Belupo's nine, though the visitors have also conceded more, eleven against eight.
Both sides have faced Istra 1961 and Rudes recently: Gorica won 1-0 away at Istra and lost 2-1 at home to Rudes, while Slaven Belupo drew 2-2 away at Rudes and lost 2-0 at home to Istra.
HNK Gorica meet NK Slaven Belupo in the HNL (Regular Season - 13). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC at Gradski stadion Velika Gorica.
Team pages: HNK Gorica · NK Slaven Belupo · HNL
Sirius · Why these numbers
HNK Gorica 42% · Draw 28% · NK Slaven Belupo 30%
Home advantage gives Gorica a slight lean — With almost nothing between them on our strength rating, 1364 to 1378 and a fraction in Slaven Belupo's favour, the usual home advantage is what puts HNK Gorica in front at 42%. The draw sits at 28%, up from the usual 27% between sides this level because both teams' own recent games average 2.7 goals.
Why HNK Gorica in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1364 to 1378. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%).
Why only 42%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 28% and NK Slaven Belupo at 30%.
Why the draw at 28%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
NK Slaven Belupo won 4 of the last 6 meetings with HNK Gorica. The record is 4 wins for NK Slaven Belupo, 1 draw and 1 win for HNK Gorica. These were 6 HNL games played at both grounds between 18 May 2025 and 22 August 2026. Latest meeting: 22 August 2026 — NK Slaven Belupo 2–0 HNK Gorica. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this HNL fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the HNK Gorica and NK Slaven Belupo team pages or the HNL page.