NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb — HNL: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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NK VarazdinDinamo ZagrebNK VarazdinDinamo ZagrebMatch preview
NK Varazdin host second-placed Dinamo Zagreb in HNL matchday 13
NK Varazdin welcome Dinamo Zagreb to Stadion Varteks for matchday 13 of the HNL. The hosts sit fourth on 19 points from 12 games, while the visitors are second on 22 points from 11, making Dinamo the higher-placed side by two places and three points.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Varazdin, managed by Nikola Šafarić, come into the game after a 1-1 draw away to HNK Rijeka. Across their last five they have won one, drawn two and lost two, scoring three goals and conceding four, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal.
Dinamo, under J. Leko, have won three and lost two of their last five, scoring 11 and conceding seven. Their most recent outing was a 2-0 win away to Sunderland, and they have won two and lost two of their last five away games.
Across their last 5 meetings, NK Varazdin won 0, Dinamo Zagreb won 4, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 NK Varazdin on 22 August 2026.
Varazdin have won once in their last five, while Dinamo Zagreb have won three of theirs and scored 11 goals to Varazdin's three.
Both sides have played HNK Rijeka and NK Slaven Belupo recently: Varazdin drew away at Rijeka and lost at home to Belupo, while Dinamo beat Rijeka 2-1 at home and won 5-1 away at Belupo.
NK Varazdin meet Dinamo Zagreb in the HNL (Regular Season - 13). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 17:00 UTC at Gradski stadion Varaždin.
Team pages: NK Varazdin · Dinamo Zagreb · HNL
Sirius · Why these numbers
NK Varazdin 32% · Draw 29% · Dinamo Zagreb 39%
Dinamo Zagreb's stronger rating gives a slight lean — Dinamo Zagreb sit 157 points higher on our strength rating, 1672 to 1515, which puts them in front, though NK Varazdin's usual home advantage keeps this to a slight lean at 39% to 32%. The draw starts near 28%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and edges up to 29% because both sides' recent games average a typical 2.6 goals.
Why Dinamo Zagreb at 39%?
Dinamo Zagreb sit 157 points higher on our strength rating — 1672 to 1515. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 26–28–46.
Why only 39%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 39% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and NK Varazdin at 32%.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Dinamo Zagreb have averaged 7 percentage points more possession than NK Varazdin in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Dinamo Zagreb are 1 game into a new manager (J. Leko), appointed 2 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this HNL fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the NK Varazdin and Dinamo Zagreb team pages or the HNL page.