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play_arrow5 clips- 30′Botafogo, goal:1–0assist
- 36′Gremio, goal:1–1
- Half-time1 – 1
- 46′Botafogo, substitution:off
- 46′Botafogo, substitution:off
- 52′Botafogo, goal:2–1assist
- 59′Gremio, substitution:off
- 66′Gremio, substitution:off
- 73′Botafogo, substitution:off
- 78′Gremio, substitution:off
- 78′Gremio, substitution:off
- 79′Botafogo, goal:3–1assist
- 79′Botafogo, substitution:off
- 86′Botafogo, substitution:off
- 88′Gremio, goal:3–2assist
- 90+3′Gremio, goal disallowed:Goal Disallowed
- 90+4′Botafogo, yellow card:
- 90+4′Botafogo, yellow card:
- 90+7′Gremio, VAR review:Card upgrade
- Full-time3 – 2
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Botafogo
Gremio
Match report
Botafogo end poor run with 3-2 win over Gremio
Botafogo snapped a five-match run without a victory as they beat Gremio 3-2 at Estádio Nilton Santos in Brasileirão Série A matchday 21. Danilo Santos struck twice either side of a Jovane Cabral equaliser, with Álvaro Montoro also on the scoresheet, as the home side held on despite a late scare.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Danilo Santos put the hosts ahead after 30 minutes, converting an Álvaro Montoro assist, only for Cabral to level for Gremio six minutes later and send the sides in level at the break. Montoro then turned provider into scorer, restoring Botafogo's lead in the 52nd minute after being teed up by Vitinho.
Danilo Santos completed his brace in the 79th minute, again assisted by Montoro, to make it 3-1 and appear to settle the contest. Gustavo Martins, set up by Tetê, pulled one back for Gremio in the 88th minute, but Botafogo saw out the remaining minutes to secure all three points.
Álvaro Montoro had a hand in three of Botafogo's four goals, scoring once and setting up two others as he finished with a match-high rating of 8.84. Danilo Santos also impressed with a two-goal contribution that proved decisive.
Despite seeing only 36% of possession, Botafogo were far more clinical, landing seven shots on target compared to Gremio's three.
Botafogo beat Gremio 3–2 (half-time 1–1).
Botafogo met Gremio in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 21). Kick-off was Wednesday, 16 September 2026, 22:30 UTC at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos. Referee: Edina Alves Batista. Attendance: 9,725.
Team pages: Botafogo · Gremio · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 30' Goal: Danilo Santos (assist: Álvaro Montoro) — 1–0 · Watch Danilo Santos's goal video (30')
- 36' Goal: Jovane Cabral — 1–1 · Watch Jovane Cabral's goal video (36')
- 52' Goal: Álvaro Montoro (assist: Vitinho) — 2–1 · Watch Álvaro Montoro's goal video (52')
- 79' Goal: Danilo Santos (assist: Álvaro Montoro) — 3–1 · Watch Danilo Santos's goal video (79')
- 88' Goal: Gustavo Martins (assist: Tetê) — 3–2 · Watch Gustavo Martins's goal video (88')
Starting line-ups
Botafogo (4-2-3-1)
Gremio (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Botafogo 53%, the draw 31%, Gremio 16%. It finished Botafogo 3–2 Gremio.
Botafogo's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Botafogo are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage plus Gremio's hot finishing due to cool on top give Botafogo the lean. The draw at 31% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Botafogo at 53%?
Botafogo sit 78 points higher on our strength rating — 1721 to 1642. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge at home won 50.4% of 10,469 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.2%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,445 games vs 44.9% across all 100,233 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Gremio scored +0.30 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 28.8% of 1,502 games, vs 29.2% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 53%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 53% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 31% and Gremio at 16%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Gremio win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.1 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.1% of 18,218. The goals environment adds 3.7 points to the draw. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points.
What did we measure but not count?
In our recorded league results, Gremio are winless in their last 13 away games: 4 draws and 9 defeats. The run began on 28 January 2026. Last recorded away league win: 7 December 2025 — Sport Recife 0–4 Gremio. Latest recorded away league result: 7 September 2026 — Vitoria 1–0 Gremio. Across 13,675 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 25.8%, compared with 24.9% expected from team strength. Botafogo are missing 3 regular starters — Nahuel Ferraresi, Alex Telles, Arthur Cabral — about 32% of their usual starting-XI weight. Our measured receipt covers one-sided absences only, and the picture here isn't one-sided — both squads are short. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Botafogo vs Gremio final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Danilo Santos's goal against Gremio (30').
- Watch Jovane Cabral's goal against Botafogo (36').
- Watch Álvaro Montoro's goal against Gremio (52').
- Watch Danilo Santos's goal against Gremio (79').
- Watch Gustavo Martins's goal against Botafogo (88').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Botafogo 3–2 Gremio. Explore more on the Botafogo and Gremio team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.