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play_arrow1 clip- 31′Sao Paulo, VAR review:Penalty confirmed
- 33′Santos, yellow card:
- 34′Sao Paulo, penalty goal:1–0Penalty
- 36′Santos, goal:1–1assist
- 41′Sao Paulo, yellow card:
- 45′Santos, yellow card:
- Half-time1 – 1
- 46′Santos, substitution:off
- 46′Santos, substitution:off
- 54′Santos, substitution:off
- 54′Santos, goal:1–2assist
- 64′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 64′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 64′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 67′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 73′Sao Paulo, substitution:off
- 76′Santos, substitution:off
- 76′Santos, yellow card:
- 86′Santos, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 2
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Sao Paulo
Santos
Match report
Gabriel Barbosa double lifts Santos to win at Sao Paulo
Santos came from behind to beat Sao Paulo 2-1 at Estadio Do MorumBIS in Brasileirão Série A on matchday 21, with Gabriel Barbosa scoring both of the visitors' goals. The hosts had the better of the territory but were left to rue a lack of cutting edge once Santos found their rhythm.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Sao Paulo took the lead in the 34th minute when Luciano converted a penalty. The advantage lasted only two minutes. Gonzalo Escobar supplied the pass for Gabriel Barbosa to equalise in the 36th, and the sides went into the break level at 1-1.
The decisive moment arrived in the 54th minute, when Everton set up Gabriel Barbosa for his second and a 2-1 lead. Sao Paulo pressed for an equaliser through the closing stages, forcing 14 corners to Santos's one, but could not find a way through again.
The result lifted Santos from eighth to seventh in the table on 41 points, five clear of Sao Paulo, who stayed 11th on 36. Santos have now won four games in a row. Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Santos a 26% chance of winning.
Gabriel Barbosa scored twice, both from assists, first from Gonzalo Escobar and then from Everton, and was the top-rated player in the match at 8.47. Artur was the highest-rated Sao Paulo player at 8.25.
Sao Paulo had 20 shots to Santos's 9 and won the corner count 14 to 1, yet still finished second best.
Santos won 2–1 away against Sao Paulo (half-time 1–1).
Sao Paulo met Santos in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 21). Kick-off was Friday, 2 October 2026, 23:00 UTC at Estadio Do MorumBIS. Referee: Matheus Delgado Candançan. Attendance: 43,398.
Team pages: Sao Paulo · Santos · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 34' Goal (penalty): Luciano — 1–0
- 36' Goal: Gabriel Barbosa (assist: Gonzalo Escobar) — 1–1
- 54' Goal: Gabriel Barbosa (assist: Everton) — 1–2 · Watch Gabriel Barbosa's goal video (54')
Starting line-ups
Sao Paulo (4-3-3)
Santos (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Sao Paulo 40%, the draw 34%, Santos 26%. It finished Sao Paulo 1–2 Santos.
Home ground outweighs Santos' rating edge — Santos are the stronger side on our strength rating, but Brasileirão Série A home advantage gives Sao Paulo the lean. The draw at 34% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Sao Paulo at 40%?
Home ground, against the rating. Santos sit 41 points higher on our strength rating — 1508 to 1548. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.4% of 10,291 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,456 games vs 44.6% across all 100,817 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 40%?
Because Santos are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 34% and Santos at 26%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Santos win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.1 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,716. The goals environment adds 3.4 points to the draw. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.5 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Santos have gained 60 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.0% of 11,141 such games vs 40.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Out: Jonathan Calleri, an important player, and Domingos Duarte, on a provisional rating. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Sao Paulo vs Santos final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Sao Paulo 1–2 Santos. Explore more on the Sao Paulo and Santos team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.