Chapecoense-sc vs PostponedOriginally scheduled 29 Jul, 20:00Vasco DA Gama — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis

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Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama — the facts

Chapecoense-sc meet Vasco DA Gama in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 21). Kick-off is Wednesday, 29 July 2026, 20:00 UTC at Arena Condá.

Team pages: Chapecoense-sc · Vasco DA Gama · Brasileirão Série A

Sirius · Why these numbers

Chapecoense-sc 27% · Draw 29% · Vasco DA Gama 44%

Vasco DA Gama's rating gap, but the draw is in play — Vasco DA Gama are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Vasco DA Gama's 44%. The draw at 29% is helped by a draw-heavy league.

Why Vasco DA Gama at 44%?

Vasco DA Gama sit 256 points higher on our strength rating — 1338 to 1594. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge on the road won 52.0% of 5,978 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 24–26–50.

Why only 44%?

Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.2%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.3% of 4,368 games vs 44.9% across all 98,308 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.

Why is the draw second, ahead of the Chapecoense-sc win?

With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,399. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points. The goals environment adds 1.4 points to the draw.

What did we measure but not count?

Vasco DA Gama average 16 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 256 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Last 6 between them: Chapecoense-sc 0 wins, 4 draws, Vasco DA Gama 2 wins. Most recently Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Chapecoense-sc, 6 months ago. Fixture history hasn't carried forward once class is level: past leaders won just 28.1% of 5555 such games — no measurable edge, 0 points. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.

Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab

About this match

On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Brasileirão Série A fixture kicks off.

Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.

Explore more on the Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.