Botafogo vs Fluminense — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
Highlightsge tvYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow2 clips- 44′Botafogo, goal:1–0
- Half-time1 – 0
- 54′Fluminense, yellow card:Misses next match
- 58′Fluminense, goal:1–1assist
- 59′Botafogo, substitution:off
- 59′Botafogo, substitution:off
- 68′Botafogo, yellow card:Unsportsmanlike conduct
- 70′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 70′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 70′Botafogo, substitution:off
- 76′Fluminense, yellow card:Foul
- 77′Fluminense, yellow card:Unsportsmanlike conduct
- 79′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 79′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 85′Fluminense, substitution:off
- 85′Botafogo, substitution:L. E. Jales do Nascimentooff
- 85′Botafogo, substitution:off
- 90+2′Botafogo, yellow card:
- 90+4′Botafogo, yellow card:
- 90+5′Botafogo, yellow card:
- Full-time1 – 1
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Botafogo
Fluminense
Match report
Botafogo held to a draw by Fluminense despite dominant possession
Botafogo and Fluminense shared the points in a 1-1 draw in round 22 of the Brasileirão Série A, played at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos. The result left Botafogo seventh on 30 points from 21 games, while Fluminense sit fourth with 35 points from 22.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Alex Telles put the home side ahead in first-half stoppage time, finishing in the 44th minute to send Botafogo in at the break leading 1-0. Fluminense responded early in the second half, with Ignacio converting Kevin Serna's assist in the 58th minute to level the score at 1-1, a scoreline that held until the final whistle.
Fluminense saw a red card during the match, playing with ten men for a period, yet Botafogo could not turn their numerical advantage into a winner. Despite Fluminense holding 60 percent of possession, Botafogo were the more direct side, registering 18 shots to Fluminense's 14 and edging the expected goals count 1.06 to 0.94.
Ignacio scored Fluminense's equaliser and finished with the highest rating of the match at 8.9, edging out home forward Álvaro Montoro's 8.5.
Botafogo were reduced to playing with a numerical disadvantage after picking up a red card, yet still out-shot Fluminense 18 to 14.
Botafogo and Fluminense drew 1–1 (half-time 1–0).
Botafogo met Fluminense in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 22). Kick-off was Sunday, 9 August 2026, 00:00 UTC at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos. Referee: Bruno Arleu de Araujo. Attendance: 23,994.
Team pages: Botafogo · Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 44' Goal: Alex Telles — 1–0 · Watch Alex Telles's goal video (44')
- 58' Goal: Ignacio (assist: Kevin Serna) — 1–1 · Watch Ignacio's goal video (58')
Starting line-ups
Botafogo (4-2-3-1)
Fluminense (4-2-3-1)
- 1 Fábio
- 6 Renê
- 44 Jemmes
- 4 Ignacio
- 2 Samuel Xavier (c)
- 16 Nonato
- 94 Otávio
- 90 Kevin Serna
- 10 Ganso
- 30 Yeferson Soteldo
- 19 Rodrigo Castillo
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Botafogo 38%, the draw 34%, Fluminense 28%. It finished Botafogo 1–1 Fluminense.
Level sides, home ground holds off Fluminense's cold finishing due to recover — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage gives Botafogo the lean. The draw at 34% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Botafogo in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1757 to 1746. Sides this close won 45.7% of 14,447 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.8%). Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.2%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,384 games vs 44.9% across all 98,839 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 38%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Fluminense sit -0.36 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.5% of 1,293 games, vs 28.8% for visitors finishing normally. Fluminense hold 6 more possession points (55 to 49 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.4% across 5,522 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Fluminense win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.2 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,056. The goals environment adds 3.8 points to the draw. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 2.1 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Botafogo are missing 1 regular starter — Alex Telles — about 24% of their usual starting-XI weight. Our measured receipt covers one-sided absences only, and the picture here isn't one-sided — both squads are short. Fluminense are missing 2 regular starters — Juan Freytes, John Kennedy — about 20% of their usual starting-XI weight. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Botafogo vs Fluminense final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Botafogo 1–1 Fluminense. Explore more on the Botafogo and Fluminense team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.