Atletico Paranaense vs 20.09.26 22:302 – 1Full TimeBahia — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis

Match report

Atletico Paranaense edge Bahia despite red card at Arena da Baixada

Atletico Paranaense beat Bahia 2-1 at Arena da Baixada in round 28 of the Brasileirão Série A, a result that lifted the hosts to third in the table on 49 points, above Bahia's 46 in fifth. Odair Hellmann's side struck early and held on to claim the points despite playing much of the game with a numerical disadvantage.

AI-assisted match report written from official match data.

Lucas Esquivel opened the scoring in the 16th minute, finishing off a Kerwin Vargas assist, but Bahia responded quickly through Erick Pulga ten minutes later to level at 1-1, a score that held until half-time. Atletico Paranaense retook the lead in the 69th minute when Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto converted another Vargas assist, making it 2-1 and proving decisive.

The hosts finished with a red card while Bahia stayed at eleven, yet Atletico Paranaense still edged the shot count 11 to 10 and matched their visitors for possession at 50 per cent apiece. Referee Anderson Daronco booked three home players and two away, in a contest where Bahia committed more fouls but could not force a second equaliser.

Esquivel scored the opening goal and earned the highest rating on the pitch at 8.4, while Vargas supplied both home assists to shape the win from midfield.

Atletico Paranaense doubled Bahia's shots on target, six to three, despite the two sides sharing possession equally.

Atletico Paranaense beat Bahia 2–1 (half-time 1–1).

Atletico Paranaense met Bahia in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 28). Kick-off was Sunday, 20 September 2026, 22:30 UTC at Arena da Baixada. Referee: Anderson Daronco. Attendance: 27,259.

Team pages: Atletico Paranaense · Bahia · Brasileirão Série A

Key moments

16' Goal: Lucas Esquivel (assist: Kerwin Vargas) — 1–0
26' Goal: Erick Pulga — 1–1
69' Goal: Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto (assist: Kerwin Vargas) — 2–1

Starting line-ups

Atletico Paranaense (3-4-2-1)

Bahia (4-3-3)

Sirius · Why these numbers

Before kick-off Sirius gave Atletico Paranaense 46%, the draw 29%, Bahia 25%. It finished Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Bahia.

Level sides, home ground holds off Bahia's control of the ball — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage gives Atletico Paranaense the lean. The draw at 29% is helped by a draw-heavy league.

Why Atletico Paranaense in front?

Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1706 to 1703. Sides this close won 45.6% of 14,695 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.9%). Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.2%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,451 games vs 44.9% across all 100,474 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.

Why only 46%?

Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Bahia hold 10 more possession points (57 to 47 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.3% across 5,599 games, from 43.9% when styles were level.

Why is the draw second, ahead of the Bahia win?

Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,162. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points. The control factor adds 1.2 points to the draw.

What did we measure but not count?

Atletico Paranaense are unbeaten in their last 11 home Brasileirão Série A games: 7 wins and 4 draws. The run began on 18 March 2026. Last recorded home league defeat: 19 February 2026 — Atletico Paranaense 0–1 Corinthians. Latest home league result: 30 August 2026 — Atletico Paranaense 3–3 Fluminense. Across 13,641 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 56.2%, compared with 54.5% expected from team strength. Atletico Paranaense are missing 5 regular starters — Kevin Viveros, Arthur Dias, Gastón Benavídez — about 43% of their usual starting-XI weight. A body count alone told us nothing. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.

Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab

About this match

On this page: the Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.

Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.

Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Bahia. Explore more on the Atletico Paranaense and Bahia team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.

Quick answers

›What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?

Atletico Paranaense beat Bahia 2–1 (half-time 1–1).

›Who scored in Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?

Lucas Esquivel (16') for Atletico Paranaense; Erick Pulga (26') for Bahia; Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto (69') for Atletico Paranaense.

›Where can I watch Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia highlights?

Goal highlights and video clips from Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Bahia are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.

›What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Bahia?

Atletico Paranaense and Bahia have met 10 times — 3 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 5 wins for Bahia and 2 draws.