HighlightsUOL EsporteYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow7 clips- 17′Gremio, penalty goal:1–0Penalty
- 23′Cruzeiro, goal:1–1assist
- 36′Gremio, substitution:off
- 41′Gremio, goal:2–1
- Half-time2 – 1
- 48′Cruzeiro, goal:2–2assist
- 61′Cruzeiro, goal:2–3assist
- 66′Gremio, substitution:off
- 66′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- 67′Cruzeiro, yellow card:
- 71′Cruzeiro, yellow card:
- 73′Gremio, yellow card:
- 73′Gremio, red card:
- 74′Gremio, yellow card:
- 76′Cruzeiro, yellow card:
- 79′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- 80′Cruzeiro, goal:2–4assist
- 90′Gremio, substitution:off
- 90′Gremio, substitution:off
- 90+2′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- 90+2′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- 90+2′Cruzeiro, substitution:off
- Full-time2 – 4
Lineups
Tap a player for match stats
Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assists
Videos
Player Ratings
Gremio
Cruzeiro
Match report
Kaio Jorge hits hat-trick as Cruzeiro beat Gremio 4-2
Cruzeiro won 4-2 at Gremio's Arena do Grêmio in Brasileirão Série A on Matchday 31, coming from behind to extend the home side's winless run to seven games. Gremio had led twice, through a Carlos Vinícius penalty on 17 minutes and a Cristian Pavón strike on 41, but were ahead only at the interval.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Kaio Jorge drew Cruzeiro level at 1-1 on 23 minutes, with Matheus Pereira supplying the assist, and the same pair combined again three minutes after the restart, on 48, to make it 2-2. Jorge completed his hat-trick on 61 minutes, this time set up by William, to put the visitors 3-2 ahead.
Gremio's task became harder on 73 minutes when Walter Kannemann was sent off with the score at 2-3. Cruzeiro scored once more with the extra man, João Marcelo finishing on 80 minutes from a Gerson assist, while Gremio did not score again after the dismissal.
The result lifted Cruzeiro from seventh to fourth on 51 points, while Gremio stayed 18th on 31. Cruzeiro host Remo on Friday in Brasileirão Série A, and Gremio travel to Coritiba on Monday in the same competition.
Kaio Jorge scored three times, on 23, 48 and 61 minutes, and earned a rating of 8.97 as the best performer on the pitch. Matheus Pereira set up two of those goals.
Cruzeiro had 60 per cent of the possession despite trailing twice, against 40 per cent for Gremio.
Cruzeiro won 4–2 away against Gremio (half-time 2–1).
Gremio met Cruzeiro in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 31). Kick-off was Sunday, 18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Arena do Grêmio. Referee: João Gobi. Attendance: 31,256.
Team pages: Gremio · Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 17' Goal (penalty): Carlos Vinícius — 1–0 · Watch Carlos Vinícius's goal video (17')
- 23' Goal: Kaio Jorge (assist: Matheus Pereira) — 1–1 · Watch Kaio Jorge's goal video (23')
- 41' Goal: Cristian Pavón — 2–1 · Watch Cristian Pavón's goal video (41')
- 48' Goal: Kaio Jorge (assist: Matheus Pereira) — 2–2 · Watch Kaio Jorge's goal video (48')
- 61' Goal: Kaio Jorge (assist: William) — 2–3 · Watch Kaio Jorge's goal video (61')
- 73' Red card: Walter Kannemann
- 80' Goal: João Marcelo (assist: Gerson) — 2–4 · Watch João Marcelo's goal video (80')
Starting line-ups
Gremio (4-2-3-1)
Cruzeiro (4-2-3-1)
- 81 Otávio Costa
- 25 Lucas Villalba
- 34 Jonathan Jesus
- 43 João Marcelo
- 12 William
- 29 Lucas Romero
- 5 Zé Lucas
- 8 Gerson
- 10 Matheus Pereira
- 99 Keny Arroyo
- 19 Kaio Jorge
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Gremio 34%, the draw 29%, Cruzeiro 37%. It finished Gremio 2–4 Cruzeiro.
Cruzeiro's stronger rating gives them a slight edge — We give Cruzeiro 37% mainly because they sit 92 points higher on our strength rating, though home advantage running strong across Brasileirão Série A keeps Gremio close at 34%. The draw sits at 29%, starting from 28% for a gap this size, nudged up by the competition's usual draw rate and trimmed slightly by typical scoring.
Why Cruzeiro at 37%?
Cruzeiro sit 92 points higher on our strength rating — 1587 to 1495. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,861 such games. Cruzeiro hold 5 more possession points (54 to 49 in recent games) across a 92-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 8,647 such games where the class table expected 40.6%. The 300 most similar past games finished 35–33–32.
Why only 37%?
Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,483 games vs 44.6% across all 101,389 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,238. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
With 8 rounds left, both still have something to play for — Gremio are 1 point from safety, Cruzeiro 3 points off the top four. Two-motivated run-ins have leaned slightly to stalemates in our corpus, but the measured cell (3573 games so far) hasn't cleared our evidence bar — noted at 0 points. Out: Wallace, a star player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Gremio vs Cruzeiro final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Carlos Vinícius's goal against Cruzeiro (17').
- Watch Kaio Jorge's goal against Gremio (23').
- Watch Cristian Pavón's goal against Cruzeiro (41').
- Watch Kaio Jorge's goal against Gremio (48').
- Watch Kaio Jorge's goal against Gremio (61').
- Watch João Marcelo's goal against Gremio (80').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Gremio 2–4 Cruzeiro. Explore more on the Gremio and Cruzeiro team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.