Nashville SC vs Atlanta United FC — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
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play_arrow1 clip- 11′Atlanta United FC, substitution:off
- Half-time
- 62′Atlanta United FC, substitution:off
- 63′Nashville SC, substitution:off
- 63′Nashville SC, substitution:off
- 73′Nashville SC, substitution:off
- 73′Nashville SC, substitution:off
- 79′Nashville SC, goal:1–0assist
- 83′Atlanta United FC, substitution:off
- 83′Atlanta United FC, substitution:off
- 85′Nashville SC, yellow card:Foul
- 90+5′Nashville SC, substitution:off
- 90+10′Atlanta United FC, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time1 – 0
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Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
Match report
Nashville SC edge Atlanta United thanks to late Mohammed strike
Nashville SC beat Atlanta United FC 1-0 at Geodis Park in Major League Soccer's Regular Season - 17, moving further clear at the top of the table against a struggling visiting side. The only goal arrived deep into the second half, but it was enough to separate two teams heading in very different directions before kick-off.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The first half finished goalless, with neither side finding a breakthrough despite Atlanta carrying more of the attacking threat in terms of chances created. Nashville held their nerve and were rewarded in the 79th minute when S. Mohammed converted an assist from Alexandre Muyl to make it 1-0, a lead the hosts did not relinquish.
Atlanta had more of the ball and created the better openings by expected goals, but could not translate that territory into a leveller. Nashville's defence, marshalled in part by Maxwell Woledzi, held firm to protect the clean sheet and secure another home win.
Brian Schwake was rated the top performer of the match with a 9.0 rating for Nashville, while goalscorer S. Mohammed also impressed, netting the decisive goal and earning an 8.0 rating.
Despite having less of the ball, Nashville were the more clinical side, overturning a 0.47 to 1.66 expected goals deficit to win 1-0.
Nashville SC beat Atlanta United FC 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Nashville SC met Atlanta United FC in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 16). Kick-off was Saturday, 18 July 2026, 00:10 UTC at Geodis Park. Referee: Filip Dujic.
Team pages: Nashville SC · Atlanta United FC · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 79' Goal: Shak Mohammed (assist: Alex Muyl) — 1–0 · Watch Shak Mohammed's goal video (79')
Starting line-ups
Nashville SC (4-4-2)
Atlanta United FC (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Nashville SC 81%, the draw 14%, Atlanta United FC 5%. It finished Nashville SC 1–0 Atlanta United FC.
Nashville SC's rating gap decides it — Nashville SC are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and Major League Soccer home advantage plus their unbeaten home run on top make it one-sided for Nashville SC. The draw at 14% is down from the usual 15.6% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why Nashville SC at 81%?
Nashville SC sit 267 points higher on our strength rating — 1720 to 1453. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge at home won 67.1% of 5,866 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.2%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.5% of 5,022 games vs 44.9% across all 98,207 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Nashville SC have kept their home record clean this season — 7 home games without defeat. Sides protecting an unbeaten home season won 59.1% of 4,853 such games where the class table expected 56.1% — one of the few streak facts that clears our evidence bar. The 300 most similar past games finished 75–14–11.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 81% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 14% and Atlanta United FC at 5%.
Why is the draw only 14%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 15.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.5% of 24,570.
What did we measure but not count?
Nashville SC have gained 69 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.4% of 11,975 such games vs 40.7% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Nashville SC are missing 3 regular starters — P. Yazbek, Andy Najar, Edvard Tagseth — about 36% of their usual starting-XI weight. A body count alone told us nothing. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Nashville SC vs Atlanta United FC final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Nashville SC 1–0 Atlanta United FC. Explore more on the Nashville SC and Atlanta United FC team pages or the Major League Soccer page.