Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsMajor League SoccerYouTubeMatch Events
- 23′FC Cincinnati, goal:0–1
- 29′Orlando City SC, yellow card:Time wasting
- 39′Orlando City SC, substitution:off
- Half-time0 – 1
- 46′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 46′Orlando City SC, substitution:off
- 48′Orlando City SC, goal:1–1assist
- 53′FC Cincinnati, goal:Goal
- 54′FC Cincinnati, VAR review:Penalty cancelled
- 55′FC Cincinnati, yellow card:Simulation
- 61′Orlando City SC, substitution:off
- 66′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 80′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 80′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 82′Orlando City SC, substitution:off
- 85′FC Cincinnati, yellow card:Foul
- 90′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 1
Lineups
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Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
Match report
Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati — the facts
Orlando City SC and FC Cincinnati drew 1–1 (half-time 0–1).
Orlando City SC met FC Cincinnati in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 19). Kick-off was Saturday, 15 August 2026, 23:30 UTC at Exploria Stadium. Referee: Tori Penso.
Team pages: Orlando City SC · FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 23' Goal: Pavel Bucha — 0–1
- 48' Goal: Tyrese Spicer (assist: Justin Ellis) — 1–1
Starting line-ups
Orlando City SC (4-2-3-1)
FC Cincinnati (3-4-3)
- 18 Roman Celentano
- 11 Samuel Gidi
- 21 Matt Miazga
- 12 Miles Robinson
- 29 Bryan Ramírez
- 5 Obinna Nwobodo
- 20 Pavel Bucha
- 66 Ender Echenique
- 10 Evander (c)
- 9 Kévin Denkey
- 16 Tom Barlow
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Orlando City SC 51%, the draw 22%, FC Cincinnati 27%. It finished Orlando City SC 1–1 FC Cincinnati.
Level sides, home ground swings it — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Major League Soccer home advantage plus FC Cincinnati's hot finishing due to cool give Orlando City SC the lean. The draw at 22% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Orlando City SC in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1592 to 1628. Sides this close won 43.2% of 15,783 home games (draw 26.7%, visitors 30.1%). Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.2%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.5% of 5,071 games vs 44.9% across all 99,031 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. FC Cincinnati scored +0.99 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 29.1% of 1,435 games, vs 28.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 51%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Orlando City SC scored +0.59 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.4% of 1,450 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing.
Why is the draw only 22%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.7%. These teams' recent games average 4.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 16,913. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
FC Cincinnati are missing 2 regular starters — Gerardo Valenzuela, Matthew Miazga — about 19% of their usual starting-XI weight. Our measured receipt covers one-sided absences only, and the picture here isn't one-sided — both squads are short.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Orlando City SC 1–1 FC Cincinnati. Explore more on the Orlando City SC and FC Cincinnati team pages or the Major League Soccer page.