FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsMajor League SoccerYouTubeMatch Events
- 46′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 60′Philadelphia Union, substitution:off
- 60′Philadelphia Union, substitution:off
- 64′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 64′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 70′FC Cincinnati, goal:1–0assist
- 74′Philadelphia Union, substitution:off
- 80′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 88′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 90′Philadelphia Union, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
Lineups
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Key Stats
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FC Cincinnati
Philadelphia Union
Match report
FC Cincinnati edge Philadelphia Union with late Jabbari goal
FC Cincinnati beat Philadelphia Union 1-0 in Major League Soccer on Matchday 33 at TQL Stadium, Ayoub Jabbari scoring the only goal in the 70th minute. The two sides were level at 0-0 at half-time, and the game stayed tight until the home side broke through with 20 minutes left.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Jabbari struck after being set up by Evander, putting Cincinnati in front for the first time. Philadelphia, who had the better of the shooting with 15 attempts to 7 and 12 corners to 3, could not find an equaliser, with Cincinnati's goalkeeper repelling a succession of efforts.
The win lifted Cincinnati from 16th to 13th in the table on 46 points, still one point behind 11th-placed Philadelphia, who stayed on 47. Cincinnati next host Nashville SC in MLS on Saturday 7 November, the same day Philadelphia entertain Toronto FC.
Roman Celentano earned the match's highest rating, 8.39, as Cincinnati held on for a clean sheet against a side that had six of its shots on target.
Philadelphia won 12 corners to Cincinnati's 3 but could not turn that pressure into a goal.
FC Cincinnati beat Philadelphia Union 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
FC Cincinnati met Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 33). Kick-off was Saturday, 31 October 2026, 18:00 UTC at TQL Stadium. Referee: Allen Chapman. Attendance: 24,013.
Team pages: FC Cincinnati · Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 70' Goal: Ayoub Jabbari (assist: Evander) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
FC Cincinnati (3-4-1-2)
Philadelphia Union (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave FC Cincinnati 38%, the draw 25%, Philadelphia Union 37%. It finished FC Cincinnati 1–0 Philadelphia Union.
Philadelphia's stronger rating meets a strong home edge — Our strength rating has Philadelphia Union 93 points higher, 1582 to 1489, but FC Cincinnati's home advantage, boosted because home sides in Major League Soccer out-perform the global norm, cancels it out at 38% to 37%. The draw starts at the usual 28% for a gap this size and drops to 25%, as both teams' recent games average 3.9 goals.
Why FC Cincinnati at 38%?
Home ground, against the rating. Philadelphia Union sit 93 points higher on our strength rating — 1582 to 1489. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,840 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.0% of 5,282 games vs 44.6% across all 108,210 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 38%?
Because Philadelphia Union are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 25% and Philadelphia Union at 37%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.9 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,505. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Philadelphia Union scored +0.48 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,194 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.0% vs 42.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Philadelphia Union have gained 93 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.0% of 11,971 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from FC Cincinnati 1–0 Philadelphia Union. Explore more on the FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union team pages or the Major League Soccer page.