St. Louis City vs San Diego — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
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- 39′San Diego, goal:0–1assist
- Half-time0 – 1
- 46′San Diego, substitution:off
- 56′San Diego, yellow card:
- 63′St. Louis City, substitution:off
- 63′St. Louis City, substitution:off
- 63′St. Louis City, substitution:off
- 65′San Diego, substitution:off
- 73′San Diego, substitution:off
- 73′San Diego, substitution:off
- 74′St. Louis City, yellow card:
- 79′St. Louis City, substitution:off
- 79′St. Louis City, substitution:off
- 87′St. Louis City, yellow card:
- 88′San Diego, substitution:off
- Full-time0 – 1
Lineups
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St. Louis City
San Diego
Match report
San Diego edge St. Louis City 1-0 at Citypark
San Diego won 1-0 away to St. Louis City in Major League Soccer on Matchday 33 at Citypark, a result that ended a run of 10 games without a win for the visitors. The only goal arrived just before the interval and was enough to leave the hosts beaten for a third consecutive game.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Anders Dreyer scored it in the 39th minute, finishing from a pass by Alejandro Alvarado Jr. to make it 0-1. It was the only event of a match that otherwise produced little in the way of incident: no red cards, two yellows for the home side and one for the visitors.
St. Louis City had the greater share of the attacking play, with 16 shots to 13 and an xG of 1.39 against 0.81, and possession was split evenly at 50 per cent each. Yet only two of San Diego's 13 efforts were on target, while the hosts put seven on target without finding a way past Pablo Sisniega.
The win lifted San Diego from 25th to 24th, on 38 points, while St. Louis City stayed eighth on 51 and are now without a win in six games. Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given San Diego a 14% chance of winning. San Diego host Sporting Kansas City next in Major League Soccer, while St. Louis City travel to Houston Dynamo.
Sisniega earned the highest rating of any player in the match, 8.29, as San Diego kept a clean sheet despite seven shots on target from St. Louis City. Dreyer, with the decisive goal, was rated 7.57.
St. Louis City put seven of their 16 shots on target, against two from 13 for San Diego, and still lost.
San Diego won 1–0 away against St. Louis City (half-time 0–1).
St. Louis City met San Diego in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 33). Kick-off was Saturday, 31 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at CITYPARK. Referee: Jon Freemon. Attendance: 22,423.
Team pages: St. Louis City · San Diego · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 39' Goal: Anders Dreyer (assist: Alejandro Alvarado Jr.) — 0–1
Starting line-ups
St. Louis City (3-4-1-2)
San Diego (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave St. Louis City 63%, the draw 23%, San Diego 14%. It finished St. Louis City 0–1 San Diego.
Strength rating puts St. Louis City clearly ahead — We give St. Louis City 63% mainly because our strength rating has them 94 points higher, 1546 to 1452, and home sides in Major League Soccer tend to out-perform the global norm. The draw sits at 23%, starting from 25% for a gap this size and nudged down because both teams' own recent games average 4.1 goals.
Why St. Louis City at 63%?
St. Louis City sit 94 points higher on our strength rating — 1546 to 1452. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.5% of 14,367 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.0% of 5,282 games vs 44.6% across all 108,210 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 53–22–25.
Why only 63%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 63% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and San Diego at 14%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 4.1 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,505. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
St. Louis City scored +0.71 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,194 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.0% vs 42.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. San Diego have shed 86 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,402 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the St. Louis City vs San Diego final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from St. Louis City 0–1 San Diego. Explore more on the St. Louis City and San Diego team pages or the Major League Soccer page.