Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
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play_arrow3 clips- 22′Atlanta United FC, goal:1–0assist
- 33′Toronto FC, yellow card:
- 40′Atlanta United FC, goal:2–0assist
- Half-time2 – 0
- 51′Atlanta United FC, goal:3–0
- 54′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- 54′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- 69′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- 69′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- 70′Atlanta United FC, substitution:off
- 70′Atlanta United FC, substitution:off
- 79′Toronto FC, goal:3–1assist
- 80′Atlanta United FC, substitution:off
- 80′Atlanta United FC, substitution:off
- 86′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- 90+2′Toronto FC, yellow card:
- 90+6′Toronto FC, missed penalty:Missed penalty
- Full-time3 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Player Ratings
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
Match report
Atlanta United FC beat Toronto FC 3-1 to end losing run
Atlanta United FC beat Toronto FC 3-1 at Atlanta Stadium on Major League Soccer's Matchday 33, taking control with two first-half goals and adding a third early in the second. The result ended a run of three defeats in a row for the home side.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Miguel Almirón opened the scoring in the 22nd minute, converting a pass from Aleksey Miranchuk. Cooper Sanchez doubled the lead in the 40th minute with Almirón providing the assist, and Atlanta went in 2-0 ahead at the interval.
Miranchuk made it 3-0 in the 51st minute, and the contest was effectively settled. Toronto pulled one back in the 79th minute when Lewis Morgan finished from Josh Sargent's pass, but Atlanta saw the game out. Toronto collected two yellow cards to Atlanta's none.
The win lifted Atlanta from 28th to 27th in the table, on 33 points, with Toronto remaining 23rd on 39. Both sides are in action next on Saturday 7 November: Atlanta are away to New York Red Bulls, while Toronto travel to Philadelphia Union, both in Major League Soccer.
Miguel Almirón scored once and set up another, earning the highest rating of any player on the pitch at 8.64. Aleksey Miranchuk was close behind, with a goal and an assist of his own.
Atlanta put eight of their 20 shots on target, against three from 13 for Toronto.
Atlanta United FC beat Toronto FC 3–1 (half-time 2–0).
Atlanta United FC met Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 33). Kick-off was Sunday, 1 November 2026, 21:30 UTC at Atlanta Stadium. Referee: Filip Dujic. Attendance: 41,197.
Team pages: Atlanta United FC · Toronto FC · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 22' Goal: Miguel Almirón (assist: Aleksey Miranchuk) — 1–0
- 40' Goal: Cooper Sanchez (assist: Miguel Almirón) — 2–0 · Watch Cooper Sanchez's goal video (40')
- 51' Goal: Aleksey Miranchuk — 3–0 · Watch Aleksey Miranchuk's goal video (51')
- 79' Goal: Lewis Morgan (assist: Josh Sargent) — 3–1 · Watch Lewis Morgan's goal video (79')
Starting line-ups
Atlanta United FC (4-3-3)
Toronto FC (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Atlanta United FC 49%, the draw 25%, Toronto FC 26%. It finished Atlanta United FC 3–1 Toronto FC.
Home edge outweighs Toronto's stronger rating — Our strength rating rates Toronto FC higher, 1447 to 1378, but the strong home advantage in Major League Soccer pulls things the other way, so we give Atlanta United FC 49%, helped by Toronto's recent scoring above their chances, a streak that tends to cool. The draw sits at 25%, down from a usual 29% because both sides' recent games average 3.6 goals.
Why Atlanta United FC at 49%?
Home ground, against the rating. Toronto FC sit 69 points higher on our strength rating — 1447 to 1378. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,136 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.1% of 5,291 games vs 44.6% across all 108,290 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Toronto FC scored +0.66 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.5% of 1,660 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 49%?
Because Toronto FC are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 25% and Toronto FC at 26%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.6 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,539. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Out: Walker Zimmerman, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. Last five: Atlanta United FC L-W-L-L-L, Toronto FC W-D-W-L-W — Toronto FC are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 43.9% of 2031 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3934 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Cooper Sanchez's goal against Toronto FC (40').
- Watch Aleksey Miranchuk's goal against Toronto FC (51').
- Watch Lewis Morgan's goal against Atlanta United FC (79').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Atlanta United FC 3–1 Toronto FC. Explore more on the Atlanta United FC and Toronto FC team pages or the Major League Soccer page.