Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsMajor League SoccerYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow6 clips- 19′New York Red Bulls, missed penalty:Missed penalty
- 25′New York Red Bulls, yellow card:
- 34′New York Red Bulls, goal:0–1assist
- 39′New York Red Bulls, substitution:off
- 40′New York Red Bulls, goal:0–2assist
- 45′Nashville SC, own goal:1–2Own goal
- 45+2′New York Red Bulls, yellow card:
- Half-time1 – 2
- 55′Nashville SC, goal disallowed:Goal Disallowed
- 59′New York Red Bulls, substitution:off
- 67′Nashville SC, substitution:off
- 67′Nashville SC, substitution:off
- 78′Nashville SC, own goal:2–2Own goal
- 80′Nashville SC, VAR review:Goal confirmed
- 82′Nashville SC, substitution:off
- 89′New York Red Bulls, substitution:off
- 89′New York Red Bulls, substitution:off
- 89′New York Red Bulls, substitution:off
- 90+1′Nashville SC, goal:3–2assist
- 90+3′Nashville SC, substitution:off
- 90+3′Nashville SC, substitution:off
- Full-time3 – 2
Videos
Player Ratings
Nashville SC
New York Red Bulls
Match report
Nashville SC beat New York Red Bulls 3-2 after recovering from two goals down
Nashville SC came from two goals down to beat New York Red Bulls 3-2 at Geodis Park on Matchday 33 of Major League Soccer, Sam Surridge scoring the winner in the first minute of stoppage time in the second half. The result stretched the league leaders' unbeaten run to nine games.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The visitors made the stronger start. Julian Hall put them ahead in the 34th minute from an Adri Mehmeti assist, and six minutes later Rafael Mosquera doubled the lead after Cade Cowell set him up. Nashville were still trailing 2-0 when Tim Parker turned the ball into his own net in the 45th minute to halve the deficit before the break.
Nashville levelled in the 78th minute when Julián Bazán put through his own goal, and they completed the turnaround at 90+1. Cristian Espinoza supplied the delivery for Surridge to settle it. The hosts finished with 61 per cent of the possession, 21 shots to 14 and 12 corners to three, though New York's xG was marginally higher.
Nashville moved to 74 points from 33 games and stayed top of the table, while New York remained 21st on 39 points. Both sides play again on Saturday 7 November: Nashville are away to FC Cincinnati and New York host Atlanta United FC.
Cristian Espinoza was the top-rated performer at 7.87, creating the winning goal for Surridge. Surridge's goal in the first minute of stoppage time earned him a rating of 7.77.
Nashville won 12 corners to New York's three, underlining how much of the second-half pressure they applied.
Nashville SC beat New York Red Bulls 3–2 (half-time 1–2).
Nashville SC met New York Red Bulls in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 33). Kick-off was Sunday, 1 November 2026, 21:30 UTC at Geodis Park. Referee: Sergii Demianchuk. Attendance: 30,109.
Team pages: Nashville SC · New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 34' Goal: Julian Hall (assist: Adri Mehmeti) — 0–1 · Watch Julian Hall's goal video (34')
- 40' Goal: Rafael Mosquera (assist: Cade Cowell) — 0–2 · Watch Rafael Mosquera's goal video (40')
- 45' Goal (own goal): Tim Parker — 1–2 · Watch Tim Parker's goal video (45')
- 78' Goal (own goal): Julián Bazán — 2–2 · Watch Julián Bazán's goal video (78')
- 90+1' Goal: Sam Surridge (assist: Cristian Espinoza) — 3–2 · Watch Sam Surridge's goal video (90+1')
Starting line-ups
Nashville SC (4-3-3)
New York Red Bulls (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Nashville SC 73%, the draw 19%, New York Red Bulls 8%. It finished Nashville SC 3–2 New York Red Bulls.
Nashville SC's strength gap drives a one-sided forecast — We give Nashville SC 73% mainly because our strength rating has them 235 points higher, 1651 to 1416, and home sides in Major League Soccer tend to do better than the global norm. The draw sits at 19%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, nudged up slightly because both teams' recent games average a typical 2.5 goals.
Why Nashville SC at 73%?
Nashville SC sit 235 points higher on our strength rating — 1651 to 1416. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.9% of 7,085 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.1% of 5,291 games vs 44.6% across all 108,290 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 70–18–12.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 73% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 19% and New York Red Bulls at 8%.
Why is the draw only 19%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 18.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,368.
What did we measure but not count?
Nashville SC have averaged 6 percentage points more possession than New York Red Bulls in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Nashville SC are unbeaten in their last 17 home Major League Soccer games: 15 wins and 2 draws. The run began on 1 November 2025. It covers all 16 home Major League Soccer games this season. Last recorded home league defeat: 18 October 2025 — Nashville SC 2–5 Inter Miami. Latest home league result: 29 October 2026 — Nashville SC 0–0 Philadelphia Union. Across 16,154 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 55.4%, compared with 54.5% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Julian Hall's goal against Nashville SC (34').
- Watch Rafael Mosquera's goal against Nashville SC (40').
- Watch Tim Parker's own goal video (45').
- Watch Julián Bazán's own goal video (78').
- Watch Sam Surridge's goal against New York Red Bulls (90+1').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Nashville SC 3–2 New York Red Bulls. Explore more on the Nashville SC and New York Red Bulls team pages or the Major League Soccer page.