Manchester United vs 10.10.26 16:301 – 1Full Time
Tottenham — Premier League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Manchester United vs Tottenham — the facts
Manchester United and Tottenham drew 1–1 (half-time 0–0).
Manchester United met Tottenham in the Premier League (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 16:30 UTC at Old Trafford. Referee: Stuart Attwell. Attendance: 74,129.
Team pages: Manchester United · Tottenham · Premier League
Key moments
- 73' Goal: Bryan Mbeumo (assist: Matheus Cunha) — 1–0 · Watch Bryan Mbeumo's goal video (73')
- 78' Red card: Rodrigo Bentancur
- 90+2' Goal: Dominic Solanke (assist: Sandro Tonali) — 1–1 · Watch Dominic Solanke's goal video (90+2')
Starting line-ups
Manchester United (4-2-3-1)
Tottenham (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Manchester United 55%, the draw 26%, Tottenham 19%. It finished Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham.
Manchester United's rating edge carries it — Manchester United are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Manchester United's 55%. The draw at 26% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Manchester United at 55%?
Manchester United sit 148 points higher on our strength rating — 1829 to 1681. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,330 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 62–19–19.
Why only 55%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Manchester United's column. Across 11,252 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,118. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Tottenham have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Out: Pedro Porro, an important player, and Xavier Simons, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Manchester United vs Tottenham final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Bryan Mbeumo's goal against Tottenham (73').
- Watch Dominic Solanke's goal against Manchester United (90+2').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham. Explore more on the Manchester United and Tottenham team pages or the Premier League page.