Match preview
Levante host Sevilla in La Liga with the sides 13 places apart on points
Levante welcome Sevilla to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia on Matchday 8 of La Liga, with Luís Castro's side 18th on five points from six games. Their recent run has been testing: one win in five, two draws and two defeats, the latest a 3-1 loss at Villarreal.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Sevilla, managed by Luis Garcia Plaza, arrive fifth on 13 points from seven matches. Their last five brought two wins, one draw and two defeats, with the most recent a 3-1 home loss to Barcelona on 19 September, three days after a 1-0 victory at Deportivo La Coruna.
Both sides have faced Barcelona this month and lost: Levante went down 4-2 at home on 13 September, while Sevilla were beaten 3-1 six days later. Across their last five games, Levante have scored eight and conceded nine, while Sevilla have scored five and conceded seven.
Across their last 5 meetings, Levante won 2, Sevilla won 3, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Levante 2–0 Sevilla on 23 April 2026. Sevilla's latest win in this sample was Levante 2–3 Sevilla on 21 April 2022.
Team news as of 12 October: Levante have Etta Eyong, Hugo Sotelo and Primo listed as out. Sevilla have Marcão, Lucas Stassin, N. Guillen and I. Munoz listed as out.
Levante have won one of their last five and failed to score twice, whereas Sevilla have won two of five and kept two clean sheets.
Levante's home form has been stronger than their overall record, with four wins in their last five home games and 14 goals scored in them.
Levante meet Sevilla in the La Liga (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off is Monday, 12 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. Referee: Adrian Cordero Vega.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Levante 48% · Draw 24% · Sevilla 28%
Home advantage gives Levante a slight lean — With almost nothing between them on our strength rating, 1635 to 1648, Levante's home advantage puts them in front at 48%, helped by Sevilla's recent scoring above their chances, a streak that tends to cool off. The draw starts at the usual 27% for sides this level but drops to 24%, mainly because of that finishing streak.
Why Levante in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1635 to 1648. Sides this close won 42.6% of 14,809 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 30.3%). Sevilla scored +0.45 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.3% of 1,457 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally. La Liga home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (28.3% vs 30.0%). La Liga homes won 46.6% of 6,157 games vs 44.6% across all 101,146 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 48%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 24% and Sevilla at 28%.
Why the draw at 24%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,163. The cool-off factor takes 2.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Levante come into this after a busy window — 11 arrivals and 15 departures over the summer. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Sevilla come into this after a busy window — 11 arrivals, 15 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Levante vs Sevilla, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this La Liga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Levante and Sevilla team pages or the La Liga page.